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Residents of the Intermountain Southwest are accustomed to hot temperatures. More than 90 percent of households in Arizona use air conditioning, which accounts for a quarter of the energy consumed in homes: more than four times the national average (U.S. Energy Information Administration).

Now imagine a scenario: It’s June, temperatures are normally over 100 degrees F, but a persistent heat wave causes temperatures to soar over 120 degrees F for several days in a row, with nighttime low temperatures at or near 100°F. Everyone is using their A/C, which overloads the system and results in an extended power outage. Now, not only is it scorching, but without power residents have no way to cool off in their homes. What’s more, the lack of power knocks out the wastewater treatment plant, and now residents lack potable water as well.

You may be thinking that this scenario is highly unlikely, and you’re right. But what if? What if over three million people in the Phoenix metro area lost power during a desiccating pre-monsoon heat wave? Or, what if this situation occurred in Las Vegas, where, in addition to a million residents, there are tourists who are unaccustomed to the heat? How do we plan for something like this? How do we manage the cascade of impacts?

These are the types of questions and scenarios discussed at a workshop, entitled “Preparing for High Consequence, Low Probability Events: Heat, Water & Energy in the Southwest,” held in September in the University of Arizona’s new ENR2 building, in Tucson. (read more)

Research on the interactions between El Niño events and the North American Monsoon System suggests that during past El Niño events, there was a slowing of the onset of monsoon precipitation across the Southwest U.S.  (read more)

Originally published in the October 2015 CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

The monsoon started strong in late June and early July. This early start centered on Arizona, which recorded its second wettest June on record (Fig. 1a), with a return to relatively normal rainfall totals in July. New Mexico saw an increase in precipitation, recording its 10th wettest July on record (Fig. 1b). Following a break in the monsoon circulation, rainfall in August and September was average in Arizona and below average for New Mexico (Figs. 1c-1d).  These statewide rankings do little to capture the spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon (see below), but they do give a sense as to the general character of the monsoon.  As noted in the October SW Climate Podcast, the monsoon started strong, but tended to fizzle for most of August and September. However we did see a late season push from tropical storm activity, which helped push some of the monsoon seasonal precipitation totals just above average values. (read more)

Image Source - NOAA - National Centers for Environmental Information

Originally published in the Oct 2015 CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

We spent the better part of 2014 (and the first part of 2015) waiting in anticipation for an El Niño event that was initially forecast to be one of the stronger events on record. By early 2015, the event in question had not yet materialized, and some questioned whether El Niño would ever arrive. Eventually it did, and has been going strong for months, with most forecasts indicating that it will remain a strong event through the winter. (read more)

Image Source - Australian Bureau of Meteorology

“El Niño” has been all over the news lately, even garnering comparisons to a Godzilla – a prehistoric sea monster awakened and empowered by nuclear radiation (thank you Wikipedia). This characterization is in response to the near record strength of this El Niño event, which is exciting for climate enthusiasts, but leaves most people wondering; what does a strong El Niño event actually mean for Arizona and New Mexico? Are we talking floods? Droughts?  Plagues of locusts? Additionally, how soon can we expect this “El Niño” character to show up?  In other words, what does a realistic assessment look like? (read more)

The monsoon started strong in late June and early July. This early start centered on Arizona, which recorded its second wettest June on record (Fig. 1a), with a return to relatively normal rainfall totals in July. New Mexico saw an increase in precipitation, recording its 10th wettest July on record (Fig. 1b). Rainfall in August and September was mostly below average, which is characteristic of the North American monsoon’s sporadic and spatially limited precipitation events. (read more)

El Niño conditions continued for a seventh straight month, and forecasts and models indicate this event likely will last through spring 2016, remaining strong through the early part of the year. Forecasts focused on the persistence of sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Figs.1–2) and weakened trade winds, ongoing convective activity in the central and eastern Pacific, and El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. (read more)

Originally published in the August 2015 CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

The monsoon started off early and strong with several widespread thunderstorms in late June and early July, especially in Arizona, which recorded its second wettest June on record.  Precipitation tapered to some extent in July in Arizona but continued to be frequent and widespread in New Mexico, which recorded its 10th wettest July on record (Figs. 1a-2a). (read more)

Originally published in the August 2015 CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

El Niño conditions continued for a sixth straight month and forecasts and the most recent outlooks offer a consistent cluster of forecasts calling for a clear El Niño signal similar to past strong events, lasting into early 2016. Forecasts focused on the persistence of sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Figs.1–2) and on weakened trade winds, ongoing convective activity in the central and eastern Pacific, and El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. (read more)

Image Source - Australian Bureau of Meteorology