July 2016 Southwest Climate Outlook - Climate Summary July 21, 2016 In this Issue: Climate Summary Maps & Images La Niña Tracker Monsoon Tracker Arizona & New Mexico Reservoir Volumes Read more
June 2016 SW Climate Outlook - ENSO Tracker June 17, 2016 El Niño conditions continued their active decline (Figs. 1-2), and consensus is that they have reached ENSO-neutral status at the time of this writing. Forecast discussions focused on the decline of atmospheric and oceanic anomalies that characterize an El Niño event—convective activity, equatorial sea surface temperatures, and trade winds—and forecasters saw consistent evidence of a return to ENSO-neutral status across these indicators. Seasonal ENSO outlooks coalesced around La Niña conditions emerging by summer or fall 2016, with relatively high certainty that La Niña conditions would be in place sometime by mid-to-late 2016. (read more) Read more
June 2016 SW Climate Outlook - Climate Summary June 16, 2016 June 2016 SW Climate Outlook (read more) Climate Summary El Niño Tracker & La Niña Outlook Arizona & New Mexico Reservoir Volumes Read more
El Niño Recap & La Niña Outlook - May 2016 May 21, 2016 El Niño Recap & La Niña Outlook This El Niño event was one of the strongest ever recorded (Fig. 5), and if past performance was any indication of what was expected for the Southwest, the region should have seen above-average precipitation over much of the cool season (winter and spring). The Southwest generally saw lower-than-expected precipitation totals that were much closer to average, or even below average in some cases. There are several reasons why this event did not meet expectations. (read more) Read more
El Niño Tracker - May 2016 May 20, 2016 El Niño conditions continued for a 15th straight month, but the peak intensity has long since passed and the event is moving toward ENSO-neutral status. Forecast discussions focused on the decline of atmospheric and oceanic anomalies that characterize an El Niño event, many of which are trending towards—or have nearly reached—ENSO-neutral status. (read more) Read more
Southwest Climate Outlook May 2016 - Climate Summary May 19, 2016 Originally published in the May 2016 CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook Precipitation & Temperature: Across most of the Southwest, April 2016 precipitation totals were above average (Fig 1a) and temperatures were average to above average (Fig 1b). Over the past 30 days, the Southwest experienced a minor cooling trend, with much of the region recording below-average temperatures (Fig. 2a) and a mix of above- and below-average precipitation (Fig. 2b). Increased rainfall and below-average temperatures are a welcome, albeit temporary, break from the typical warming and drying trend observed in late spring and early summer. Read more
El Niño Tracker - March 2016 - Time Winding Down for El Niño in the Southwest March 18, 2016 Originally published in the Mar 2016 CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook El Niño conditions continued for a 13th straight month, but the peak of this event has passed. Monitoring and forecast discussions emphasize strong positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Figs. 1–2) and enhanced convective activity in the central and eastern Pacific. These positive temperature anomalies are waning, and trade wind activity is increasing, indications that this El Niño event is on the decline. Most forecasts emphasize this event will continue through spring or early summer before returning to ENSO-neutral status. (read more) Read more
Southwest Climate Outlook March 2016 - Last Gasp for El NIño? March 17, 2016 In the Mar 2016 issue of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook (SWCO) Southwest Climate Summary & Recap (this post - read more) Precipitation & Temperature Drought, Snowpack & Water Supply El Niño Tracker Environmental Health and Safety (including wildfire) Precipitation & Temperature Forecast Summaries Also in this issue: Maps & Images El Niño Tracker - March 2016 Reservoir Volumes: Arizona & New Mexico Rio Grande-Bravo Outlook Image Source - Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Image Source - NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information Read more
2015-2016 El Niño Tracker - Feb 2016 Feb. 22, 2016 El Niño conditions continued for a 12th straight month, but we have passed the peak intensity of one of the strongest El Niño events on record. This does not mean that El Niño is over, though. Despite the recent warm and dry conditions in the Southwest, we are likely to see more weather events associated with El Niño conditions through spring 2016. (read more) Read more
Southwest Climate Outlook - February 2016 Feb. 18, 2016 Originally Published in the Feb 2016, CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook Climate Summary Maps & Images El Niño Tracker - February 2016 Arizona & New Mexico Reservoir Volumes Introducing - Rio Grande-Bravo Climate Outlook Read more
