Southwest Climate Outlook March 2016 - Last Gasp for El NIño? March 17, 2016 In the Mar 2016 issue of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook (SWCO) Southwest Climate Summary & Recap (this post - read more) Precipitation & Temperature Drought, Snowpack & Water Supply El Niño Tracker Environmental Health and Safety (including wildfire) Precipitation & Temperature Forecast Summaries Also in this issue: Maps & Images El Niño Tracker - March 2016 Reservoir Volumes: Arizona & New Mexico Rio Grande-Bravo Outlook Image Source - Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Image Source - NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information Read more
2015-2016 El Niño Tracker - Feb 2016 Feb. 22, 2016 El Niño conditions continued for a 12th straight month, but we have passed the peak intensity of one of the strongest El Niño events on record. This does not mean that El Niño is over, though. Despite the recent warm and dry conditions in the Southwest, we are likely to see more weather events associated with El Niño conditions through spring 2016. (read more) Read more
Southwest Climate Outlook - February 2016 Feb. 18, 2016 Originally Published in the Feb 2016, CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook Climate Summary Maps & Images El Niño Tracker - February 2016 Arizona & New Mexico Reservoir Volumes Introducing - Rio Grande-Bravo Climate Outlook Read more
¿Cómo se determina la fuerza de El Niño? Feb. 2, 2016 Existen varios índices o indicadores para seguir el desarrollo de ENSO (La Circulación del Sur El Niño) a través del Océano Pacifico y para determinar si los patrones atmosféricos reflejan las condiciones típicas de El Niño, La Niña, o condiciones neutrales. (lee mas) Read more
Como es que La Oscilación del Sur “El Niño” (ENSO) afecta los patrones del tiempo de la región suroeste? Feb. 1, 2016 Los eventos El Niño y La Niña se desarrollan generalmente entre Abril y Junio, por lo cual quiere decir que la región suroeste de los Estados Unidos siente los efectos más prominentes de los cambios de la circulación de ENSO durante el invierno y hasta los principios de la primavera. La influencia de ENSO en el tiempo de la región suroeste se correlaciona con su capacidad de cambiar la posición de la corriente en chorro – los vientos en altura que dirigen los sistemas de tormentas y dictan la posición de las áreas de alta y baja presión. Durante los eventos “El Niño,” la corriente en chorro sobre el Océano Pacifico se desarrolla menos ondulada y se separa en una corriente subtropical cerca del ecuador y una corriente polar más débil. (lee mas) Figura: Los eventos El Niño y La Niña causan que el pasaje de las corrientes en chorro se muevan sobre los Estados Unidos en diferentes lugares, frecuentemente causando inviernos húmedos durante los eventos El Niño e inviernos secos durante los eventos La Niña en el suroeste. Imagen modificada de la Administración Oceánica y Atmosférica Nacional (NOAA). Read more
Qué es ENSO - La Oscilación del Sur “El Niño”? Jan. 28, 2016 “El Niño” y “La Niña” son parte de la oscilación del sur El Niño, (ENSO por sus siglas). ENSO es una fluctuación natural de las temperaturas superficiales del mar y la presión superficial del aire del Océano Pacifico Tropical entre el este y oeste. Durante un evento “El Niño,” los vientos alisios del este se debilitan, permitiendo que el agua superficial más cálida del Océano Pacifico Tropical del oeste corra hacia el este. (lee mas). Figura 1: Eventos El Niño causan que el pasaje invernal de la corriente en chorro se mueva sobre la región del suroeste, generalmente entregando más lluvia y nieve invernal en la región. Imagen modificada de la Administración Oceánica y Atmosférica Nacional (NOAA). Read more
El Niño Tracker - Jan 2016 Jan. 22, 2016 El Niño conditions continued for an 11th straight month, putting us squarely in the middle of a strong El Niño event that will be among one of the strongest events on record. Forecasts focused on the persistence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Figs. 1–2) and weakened trade winds, enhanced convective activity in the central and eastern Pacific, and El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. Models continue to forecast a strong El Niño event that will last through spring 2016, but we are starting to see signs of decline in the overall strength of the event. (read more) Read more
Southwest Climate Outlook January 2016 Jan. 21, 2016 In this Issue: Climate Summary Maps & Images El Niño Tracker Arizona & New Mexico Reservoir Volumes Early Season (Oct-Dec) El Niño Recap CLIMAS Climate & Society Graduate Fellows Read more
Introducing the 2016 CLIMAS Climate and Society Graduate Fellows Jan. 13, 2016 The Climate & Society Graduate Fellows Program supports University of Arizona graduate students whose work connects climate research and decision making. The program is made possible by support from the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), the International Research Applications Program (IRAP), and the UA Office for Research and Discovery. Fellows receive $5,000 and guidance from members of the CLIMAS research team for one year. The program’s main objective is to train a group of students to cross the traditional boundaries of academic research into use-inspired science and applied research. While CLIMAS research generally occurs in the Southwest U.S., the Fellows program allows students to work anywhere in the world. Fellows’ projects may follow two tracks. Students who want to conduct collaborative research may use their funding for use-inspired projects. Students who have conducted climate research and want to communicate their findings to audiences outside of academia may use their funding for outreach. Fellows may also use their funding for a combination of the two tracks. The Climate & Society Graduate Fellows Program helps students address the world’s climate-related problems by funding projects that engage people outside of the university. The 2016 Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) Climate & Society Graduate Fellows are: Saleh Ahmed Developing a Community Hub for Climate Innovations in Southwest Coastal Bangladesh Schuyler Chew Collaborative Outreach and Climate Adaptation Planning with the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe Stina Janssen Solar Sovereignty: use-inspired collaborative research for affordable off-grid solar on the Navajo Nation Sarah Kelly-Richards Outreach for Small Hydropower Governance in Chile Joy Liu Dryland conservation in China: local incentives drive collaborative action on regional climate adaptation (Read more) Read more
Ask an Applied Climatologist - Q&A - How did observed weather correspond to (El Niño) climate predictions? Jan. 12, 2016 Looking back at Oct-Dec; Did observed weather events correspond with expected (El Niño) climate patterns? January has kicked off with a bang, and the much anticipated super-mega-Godzilla El Nino is upon us. El Niño conditions have been in place for months (Figure 1: Oceanic Niño Index), but has this El Niño event been impacting the weather of the Southwest in ways that are expected? Sort of, but not exactly. (read more) Read more