Qué es ENSO - La Oscilación del Sur “El Niño”? Jan. 28, 2016 “El Niño” y “La Niña” son parte de la oscilación del sur El Niño, (ENSO por sus siglas). ENSO es una fluctuación natural de las temperaturas superficiales del mar y la presión superficial del aire del Océano Pacifico Tropical entre el este y oeste. Durante un evento “El Niño,” los vientos alisios del este se debilitan, permitiendo que el agua superficial más cálida del Océano Pacifico Tropical del oeste corra hacia el este. (lee mas). Figura 1: Eventos El Niño causan que el pasaje invernal de la corriente en chorro se mueva sobre la región del suroeste, generalmente entregando más lluvia y nieve invernal en la región. Imagen modificada de la Administración Oceánica y Atmosférica Nacional (NOAA). Read more
El Niño Tracker - Jan 2016 Jan. 22, 2016 El Niño conditions continued for an 11th straight month, putting us squarely in the middle of a strong El Niño event that will be among one of the strongest events on record. Forecasts focused on the persistence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Figs. 1–2) and weakened trade winds, enhanced convective activity in the central and eastern Pacific, and El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. Models continue to forecast a strong El Niño event that will last through spring 2016, but we are starting to see signs of decline in the overall strength of the event. (read more) Read more
Southwest Climate Outlook January 2016 Jan. 21, 2016 In this Issue: Climate Summary Maps & Images El Niño Tracker Arizona & New Mexico Reservoir Volumes Early Season (Oct-Dec) El Niño Recap CLIMAS Climate & Society Graduate Fellows Read more
Introducing the 2016 CLIMAS Climate and Society Graduate Fellows Jan. 13, 2016 The Climate & Society Graduate Fellows Program supports University of Arizona graduate students whose work connects climate research and decision making. The program is made possible by support from the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), the International Research Applications Program (IRAP), and the UA Office for Research and Discovery. Fellows receive $5,000 and guidance from members of the CLIMAS research team for one year. The program’s main objective is to train a group of students to cross the traditional boundaries of academic research into use-inspired science and applied research. While CLIMAS research generally occurs in the Southwest U.S., the Fellows program allows students to work anywhere in the world. Fellows’ projects may follow two tracks. Students who want to conduct collaborative research may use their funding for use-inspired projects. Students who have conducted climate research and want to communicate their findings to audiences outside of academia may use their funding for outreach. Fellows may also use their funding for a combination of the two tracks. The Climate & Society Graduate Fellows Program helps students address the world’s climate-related problems by funding projects that engage people outside of the university. The 2016 Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) Climate & Society Graduate Fellows are: Saleh Ahmed Developing a Community Hub for Climate Innovations in Southwest Coastal Bangladesh Schuyler Chew Collaborative Outreach and Climate Adaptation Planning with the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe Stina Janssen Solar Sovereignty: use-inspired collaborative research for affordable off-grid solar on the Navajo Nation Sarah Kelly-Richards Outreach for Small Hydropower Governance in Chile Joy Liu Dryland conservation in China: local incentives drive collaborative action on regional climate adaptation (Read more) Read more
Ask an Applied Climatologist - Q&A - How did observed weather correspond to (El Niño) climate predictions? Jan. 12, 2016 Looking back at Oct-Dec; Did observed weather events correspond with expected (El Niño) climate patterns? January has kicked off with a bang, and the much anticipated super-mega-Godzilla El Nino is upon us. El Niño conditions have been in place for months (Figure 1: Oceanic Niño Index), but has this El Niño event been impacting the weather of the Southwest in ways that are expected? Sort of, but not exactly. (read more) Read more
Gregg Garfin in the Science Studio - Climate and the Warming of the Southwest Jan. 5, 2016 Gregg Garfin discusses SW Climate, monsoon precipitation, and El Niño with KTEP. Visit the KTEP page for streaming audio and more information Read more
El Niño and Media Coverage in the Southwest Dec. 18, 2015 What do wildflowers, hantavirus, downhill skiing, locusts, and floods all have in common? The answer is El Niño in the Southwest. These subjects represent a small sample of media stories written during the last 33 years that connect regional impacts to the El Niño phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and help illustrate an evolution in our understanding of the significance of El Niño to the region. (read more) Read more
2015 - Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Recap Dec. 18, 2015 The 2015 eastern Pacific tropical storm season was one of the most active seasons on record, with 18 named storms and 13 hurricanes, nine of which reached “major” hurricane status (category 3 or greater). We also saw the strongest hurricane on record, Patricia, in the eastern Pacific in late October, and the latest-forming major hurricane on record, Sandra, in late November (see NOAA’s National Hurricane Center for more details). This meets or exceeds the high end of the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC) seasonal forecast (from May 27), which predicted 15 to 22 named storms, seven to 12 hurricanes, and five to eight major hurricanes. The eastern Pacific hurricane forecast was tied to the ongoing El Niño forecast discussion, as conditions linked to El Niño (e.g., decreased wind shear in the tropical Pacific) also favored increased hurricane frequency and intensity in the Pacific region. (read more) Read more
El Niño Tracker - Dec 2015 Dec. 18, 2015 El Niño conditions continued for a 10th straight month, and models continue to forecast a strong El Niño event that will last through spring 2016 and remain strong through the early part of the year. Forecasts focused on the persistence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Figs. 1–2) and weakened trade winds, enhanced convective activity in the central and eastern Pacific, and El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. Notably, the SST values in the Niño 3.4 region were at or above the record values in November. Climate scientists have been quick to point out that numerous factors contribute to the overall strength of El Niño, but we are certainly seeing one of the strongest events on record. (read more) Image Source - Australian Bureau of Meteorology Image Source - NOAA/NWS - Climate Prediction Center Read more
Southwest Climate Outlook December 2015 Dec. 17, 2015 In this Issue: Southwest Climate Summary Maps & Images El Niño Tracker - Dec 2015 2015 E Pacific Tropical Storm Recap Arizona & New Mexico Reservoir Volumes El Niño and Vector Borne Disease El Niño and Media Coverage in the Southwest Image Source - Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Image Source - NOAA - National Centers for Environmental Information Read more