El Niño Tracker - August 2015 Aug. 21, 2015 Originally published in the August 2015 CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook El Niño conditions continued for a sixth straight month and forecasts and the most recent outlooks offer a consistent cluster of forecasts calling for a clear El Niño signal similar to past strong events, lasting into early 2016. Forecasts focused on the persistence of sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Figs.1–2) and on weakened trade winds, ongoing convective activity in the central and eastern Pacific, and El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. (read more) Image Source - Australian Bureau of Meteorology Read more
August 2015 - CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook Aug. 20, 2015 Originally published in the August 2015 CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook, In this issue: Climate Summary (this post - read more) plus: 2015 El Niño Tracker, Monsoon Summary Jun 15 – Aug 20, and Arizona & New Mexico Reservoir Volumes Image Source - High Plains Regional Climate Center Read more
El Niño Tracker - July 2015 July 20, 2015 El Niño conditions continue for a fifth straight month, and at this point, forecasters are relatively bullish that we are witnessing the development of a moderate-to-strong event that could rival 1997 in absolute magnitude later this year. The most recent outlooks from various sources offer a consistent cluster of forecasts calling for a clear El Niño signal that is maintained or even strengthens well into early 2016. Forecasts focused on the persistence of sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Figs.1 - 2) along with weakening trade winds, ongoing convective activity in the central and eastern Pacific, and El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. (read more) Image Source - Australian Bureau of Meteorology Read more
Monsoon Summary - (June 15 - July 16) July 16, 2015 After a few anomalous incursions of tropical moisture in early June, we saw an early beginning to the monsoon in mid- to late June, a few weeks ahead of the typical start date (Fig. 1). Regional dewpoint/humidity readings for June illustrate the multiple incursions of tropical moisture, followed by the onset of monsoon conditions later in the month (Fig. 2). (read more) Read more
Heidi Brown (CLIMAS PI) & Joceline Lega win DARPA Chikungunya Virus Forecasting Competition July 8, 2015 Full version of this story originally appeared in the UANews on July 1, 2015 A UA team (including our very own Heidi Brown) has won an international competition for its work developing methods for advanced forecasting of infectious disease. (read more) More info on the DARPA Forecasting Chikungunya Challenge Read more
CLIMAS Climate and Society Graduate Fellow Rebecca Lybrand in the News July 7, 2015 The full version of this story was originally published in UANews on July 6, 2015 To Rebecca Lybrand, calling soil "dirt" is simplistic and diminishes its importance to plants, animals and humans. So why is soil, the foundation of life, constantly being referred to as "dirt"? (read more) Read more
June 2015 SW Climate Podcast - Tropical Storms, Monsoon, Wildfire & El Niño July 1, 2015 In the June 2015 edition of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido recap the month of June, including the quick transition from cool and wet to hot and muggy conditions. The discuss the impact of tropical storms on the region, the early start to this season, and what this may or may not mean in terms of relationship to monsoon patterns. They turn to El Niño, and the impact the El Niño signal may be having on the region, both looking back at the past few months, but in particular looking forward at what this could mean for the southwest in terms of precipitation patterns over the next 12 months. (read more) Read more
El Niño Models - May 2015 SW Climate Podcast June 19, 2015 Excerpt from the May 2015 CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast - (read more) Read more
El Niño Tracker - June 2015 June 19, 2015 Originally Published in the June 2015 CLIMAS SW Climate Outlook (SWCO) El Niño conditions continued for a fourth straight month with no signs of weakening or disorganizing. Forecasts focused on the persistence of sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Figs.1 - 2) along with weakening trade winds, ongoing convective activity, and El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. Despite the high degree of uncertainty associated with forecasting El Niño this time of year (the so-called spring predictability barrier), the most recent outlooks from various sources offer a consistent cluster of forecasts calling for a clear El Niño signal that is maintained or even strengthening. (read more) Image Source - Australian Bureau of Meteorology Read more
