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Originally Published in the June 2015 CLIMAS SW Climate Outlook (SWCO)

Precipitation: In the past 30 days, most of New Mexico and much of northern Arizona recorded well-above-average precipitation (Fig. 1).  Climatologically, we are in one of the drier times of year for the Southwest, so this precipitation and humidity (mostly tied to early season Pacific tropical storm activity) helped tamp down fire risk. This respite was short-term however, as water-year observations since October 1 reflect persistent and ongoing drought conditions, with most of the western U.S. recording well-below-average precipitation (Fig. 2).  Notable exceptions are New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana, but with most recent precipitation falling on the eastern side of the Continental Divide. (read more)

Image Source - NOAA/NWS - Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service

Originally published in the May 2015 SW Climate Outlook

Precipitation: In the past 30 days, most of New Mexico and much of central Arizona recorded well above-average precipitation (Fig. 1). Climatologically, this is one of the drier times of year for the Southwest, so any substantive precipitation during this timeframe is generally unexpected but welcome, as it helps tamp down fire risk. Water year observations since October 1 demonstrate the persistent and ongoing drought, with most western states, including Arizona, recording large areas of below-average to well below-average precipitation (Fig. 2). New Mexico and the eastern side of Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana have benefitted from some late season storms, but that rainfall on the other side of the Continental Divide, does not necessarily help the water situation in the Southwest.  (read more)

Image Source - NOAA/NWS - Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

Image Source - NOAA/NWS - Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

This was originally published in the April 2015 Southwest Climate Outlook

Strong signals in early 2014 stalled, delaying El Niño’s onset until last month, when ocean-atmosphere coupling and an additional Kelvin wave indicated more favorable conditions. Despite this late start, El Niño continued for a second consecutive month. Recent increases in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Fig.1 - 2) and ongoing convective activity associated with El Niño-favorable conditions indicate we might be witnessing a two-year El Niño event. These forecasts rely on projections during a time of increasing uncertainty, and the so-called “spring predictability barrier” continues to make it difficult to anticipate how seasonal changes will help or hinder El Niño. (read more)

Precipitation: In the past 30 days, most of the southwestern U.S. received below-average precipitation (Fig. 1). The winter wet season is wrapping up, and instead of above-average precipitation (as many of the El Niño influenced seasonal forecasts suggested), water year observations since October 1 show below-average precipitation across much of Arizona and portions of New Mexico. The situation is direr in other western regions, with California, the Pacific Northwest, and the Intermountain West recording significantly below-average winter precipitation (Fig. 2). (read more)