El Niño Tracker - June 2015

June 19, 2015

Originally Published in the June 2015 CLIMAS SW Climate Outlook (SWCO)

El Niño conditions continued for a fourth straight month with no signs of weakening or disorganizing. Forecasts focused on the persistence of sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Figs.1 - 2) along with weakening trade winds, ongoing convective activity, and El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. Despite the high degree of uncertainty associated with forecasting El Niño this time of year (the so-called spring predictability barrier), the most recent outlooks from various sources offer a consistent cluster of forecasts calling for a clear El Niño signal that is maintained or even strengthening. (read more)

Image Source - Australian Bureau of Meteorology

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Southwest Climate Outlook June 2015

June 18, 2015

Originally Published in the June 2015 CLIMAS SW Climate Outlook (SWCO)

Precipitation: In the past 30 days, most of New Mexico and much of northern Arizona recorded well-above-average precipitation (Fig. 1).  Climatologically, we are in one of the drier times of year for the Southwest, so this precipitation and humidity (mostly tied to early season Pacific tropical storm activity) helped tamp down fire risk. This respite was short-term however, as water-year observations since October 1 reflect persistent and ongoing drought conditions, with most of the western U.S. recording well-below-average precipitation (Fig. 2).  Notable exceptions are New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana, but with most recent precipitation falling on the eastern side of the Continental Divide. (read more)

Image Source - NOAA/NWS - Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service

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Winter/Spring Recap 2014-2015

May 22, 2015

Originally published in the May 2015 CLIMAS SW Climate Outlook

It may not be news to anyone who follows weather forecasting and climate outlooks, but winter 2014–2015 did not play out as expected. Last year, long-term seasonal forecasts keyed in on conditions favorable to the development of an El Niño event and suggested we were more likely to see above-average precipitation in our winter months.  This was welcome news to a region that has been affected by a long-term and persistent drought, but rather than sustained above-average precipitation, we saw highly variable precipitation between October 2014 and April 2015 (Fig. 1) and cumulative water year-to-date precipitation that is below average across much of Arizona and parts of New Mexico (Fig. 2 on page 2).  Temperature was much less variable, with record or near-record warm average temperatures across most of the western U.S. (Fig. 4 on page 2). So what does this mean for some key areas of concern in the Southwest?  (read more)

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2015 El Niño Tracker

May 22, 2015

Originally published in the May 2015 CLIMAS SW Climate Outlook

El Niño continued for a third straight month, with no signs of weakening or dissipating. Forecasts keyed in on persistent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Figs. 1–2), along with weakening trade winds, ongoing convective activity, and El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. If these conditions continue, we are likely to see the effects of a moderate El Niño event–or stronger if conditions continue to strengthen. Spring forecasts have a higher degree of uncertainty, owing to the so-called spring predictability barrier, a likely source of vacillations in recent forecasts. (read more)

Image Source - Australian Bureau of Meteorology

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Southwest Climate Outlook May 2015

May 21, 2015

Originally published in the May 2015 SW Climate Outlook

Precipitation: In the past 30 days, most of New Mexico and much of central Arizona recorded well above-average precipitation (Fig. 1). Climatologically, this is one of the drier times of year for the Southwest, so any substantive precipitation during this timeframe is generally unexpected but welcome, as it helps tamp down fire risk. Water year observations since October 1 demonstrate the persistent and ongoing drought, with most western states, including Arizona, recording large areas of below-average to well below-average precipitation (Fig. 2). New Mexico and the eastern side of Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana have benefitted from some late season storms, but that rainfall on the other side of the Continental Divide, does not necessarily help the water situation in the Southwest.  (read more)

Image Source - NOAA/NWS - Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

Image Source - NOAA/NWS - Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

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Mini-Podcast/News - Southwest Climate Update - May 1, 2015

May 4, 2015

Podcast introduction: We're introducing a new podcast series (CLIMAS SW Climate Update) that focuses on quick and timely reporting on important climate news and information. We will emphasize stories that relate to the southwest, but we'll also include other climate related news that illustrate the impact of climate on national or global scales.  And Mike, Zack, and Ben will still take a deeper look at southwestern climate issues in the monthly CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. This episode, we're focused on record warm temperatures, drought, and snowpack across the west, along with a few stories that illustrate the downstream impact of these conditions.

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Colorado River Delta: Pulse Flow - One Year Later

April 22, 2015

The Colorado River Delta hadn’t seen regularly flowing water in 50 years.  But one year ago the U.S. and Mexico came together to work on a project to move water down the empty riverbed.

On March 23, 2014 these countries released more than 100,000 acre-feet of water into the delta below the Morelos Dam.  This area is along the Colorado River on the U.S.-Mexico border. 

On May 15, 2014, the river finally met the sea. (read more)

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