Originally published in the August 2015 CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

The monsoon started off early and strong with several widespread thunderstorms in late June and early July, especially in Arizona, which recorded its second wettest June on record.  Precipitation tapered to some extent in July in Arizona but continued to be frequent and widespread in New Mexico, which recorded its 10th wettest July on record (Figs. 1a-2a). (read more)

Originally published in the August 2015 CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

El Niño conditions continued for a sixth straight month and forecasts and the most recent outlooks offer a consistent cluster of forecasts calling for a clear El Niño signal similar to past strong events, lasting into early 2016. Forecasts focused on the persistence of sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Figs.1–2) and on weakened trade winds, ongoing convective activity in the central and eastern Pacific, and El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. (read more)

Image Source - Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Originally published in the August 2015 CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook, In this issue:

Climate Summary (this post - read more)

plus: 2015 El Niño Tracker, Monsoon Summary Jun 15 – Aug 20, and Arizona & New Mexico Reservoir Volumes

Image Source - High Plains Regional Climate Center

El Niño conditions continue for a fifth straight month, and at this point, forecasters are relatively bullish that we are witnessing the development of a moderate-to-strong event that could rival 1997 in absolute magnitude later this year. The most recent outlooks from various sources offer a consistent cluster of forecasts calling for a clear El Niño signal that is maintained or even strengthens well into early 2016. Forecasts focused on the persistence of sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Figs.1 - 2) along with weakening trade winds, ongoing convective activity in the central and eastern Pacific, and El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. (read more)

Image Source - Australian Bureau of Meteorology

After a few anomalous incursions of tropical moisture in early June, we saw an early beginning to the monsoon in mid- to late June, a few weeks ahead of the typical start date (Fig. 1). Regional dewpoint/humidity readings for June illustrate the multiple incursions of tropical moisture, followed by the onset of monsoon conditions later in the month (Fig. 2). (read more)

Full version of this story originally appeared in the UANews on July 1, 2015

A UA team (including our very own Heidi Brown) has won an international competition for its work developing methods for advanced forecasting of infectious disease. (read more)

More info on the DARPA Forecasting Chikungunya Challenge

The full version of this story was originally published in UANews on July 6, 2015

To Rebecca Lybrand, calling soil "dirt" is simplistic and diminishes its importance to plants, animals and humans. So why is soil, the foundation of life, constantly being referred to as "dirt"? (read more)