U.S. Forest Service

Research has established that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern in the equatorial Pacific has relatively predictable seasonal influences on the weather and climate of the US Southwest, making climate information valuable for environmental and economic decision-making. Fire management agencies are an ideal target audience for climate information. Significant work has gone into creating wildfire-specific climate outlooks and information products. Research has identified networks of actors successful at disseminating this information. This study addresses two questions: how is climate information being used to inform wildland fire management decisions and what is the economic value of such information? Focus groups and an online survey of Southwest wildfire experts address the first question and form the basis of an economic analysis of the value of fire management information. This research seeks to reveal what opportunities exist to improve existing products and develop new ones.

Drought risks and vulnerability varies within regional stakeholder networks. This project aimed to better characterize the complexity of drought vulnerability in the Lower San Pedro watershed. CLIMAS investigators engaged with a mix of stakeholders with shared interest in better understanding how drought and climate vulnerability might shape future climate risks. The project takes a local-to-regional perspective on drought and climate vulnerability and asks how that could inform a drought early warning system.

Resource managers face major challenges in developing medium- and long-term management plans considering the uncertainty arising from various climatic and socioeconomic factors. One approach to circumventing what can be a paralyzing level of uncertainty is Scenario Planning. This approach allows managers to “embrace uncertainty” and strategically prepare for a wide range of possible futures. In this project, we worked with the Cienegas Watershed Partnership to develop a set of scenario narratives, with specific scenario sets for each of four resource areas: Montane, Upland, Riparian, and Cultural. Participants were challenged to consider uncertainties and potential changes in climate, social, technological, economic, environmental, and political forces that are beyond the control of the Cienegas Watershed Partnership. Under the auspices of Scenario Planning, each resource group was able to consider and discuss future sets of conditions and management challenges that generally do not get a lot of attention.

Three newsletters were distributed to middle and upper management personnel across the various state and federal organizations that were involved in this project to keep them apprised of our progress.

Dust storms in the Southwest U.S. and northern Mexico continue to be a serious health and safety issue. This project aims to locate the sources of dust that have impacted people in southwestern New Mexico, northwestern Chihuahua, and west Texas. Researchers continued surveillance of dust storms and determined the latitude and longitude of each event. To better understand the characteristics of the land surface from where the dust emission occurs, researchers identified more than 2,000 locations responsible for a dust plume as seen in satellite imagery and are in the process of understanding the state-of-the-land surface at those locations. Researchers also have started work to construct a synoptic climatology of these dust storms to increase their ability to forecast these events.

Dust storms in the Southwest United States and northern Mexico continue to create serious health and safety issues. In a continued effort to locate the sources of dust, researchers continued surveillance of dust storms and determined the latitude and longitude of these storms.

Findings: Researchers completed their work designing a method to characterize dust storm events using data from the North American Regional Reanalysis model archive. Based on 60 dust storm events, they generated patterns to compare with non-dust days. While that method proved to be successful in identifying dust storms, it also identified other non-dust events. One particular variable that needs to be included in the future is soil moisture.

For more information documenting dust events that impacted New Mexico, northwestern Chihuahua, and west Texas: (http://nmborderaq.blogspot.com/)

For videos published on the New Mexico Climate Center’s YouTube channel to support outreach on climate, air quality, and projects at the New Mexico Climate Center: (https://www.youtube.com/NMClimate).

CLIMAS is a partner with The Nature Conservancy’s Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI). SWCCI was initiated in 2008 to engage conservation practitioners and land managers in local-scale climate change adaptation planning and implementation. This project aimed to: (1) further develop and expand impacts assessment activities in each of the Southwest’s Four Corners states (AZ, CO, NM and UT), (2) apply a vulnerability assessment tool being developed by the U.S. Forest Service, and (3) apply an adaptation planning framework developed by a Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) working group to a series of case-study sites in the four states. The case studies provided opportunities to further test and refine each component of the overall framework, by building on new research, strengthening existing partnerships, and laying the foundation for future innovation, including on-the-ground application and testing of adaptation strategies. Other partners included the Wildlife Conservation Society, U.S. Forest Service, University of Washington, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the Western Water Assessment RISA.

This project led to further collaboration between The Nature Conservancy, CLIMAS, and Western Water Assessment.

See The Nature Conservancy's webpage on climate change in New Mexico for more information.