Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc.

Climate change adaptation planning requires decision-makers to envision the future of their communities, and make well-grounded assumptions about economic, demographic, and cultural trends that are likely to affect that vision. However, many communities lack the technical resources to compile and analyze climate data and research findings, thus making the information essentially inaccessible to them. This project addresses the lack of access to appropriate climate change information by producing climate profiles for communities to support their adaptation planning efforts.

This project assists the City of Tucson and its contractors in conducting a vulnerability assessment for the community, regarding anticipated climate change impacts. Researchers will conduct studies and deliver best estimates on: (a) projections of future climate and hydrology of the Tucson Basin; and (b) projections of future climate and hydrology of Colorado River surface water supplies that are part of Tucson Water’s water resources portfolio. Researchers will also synthesize state-of-the-art research related to: (a) Tucson energy-water nexus issues; (b) Tucson’s urban heat island; (c) risk related to selected diseases; (d) local food security; and (e) projected impacts and risks related to urban ecosystems and ecosystems surrounding the City. CLIMAS researchers and University of Arizona researchers will synthesize research on vulnerability assessment and adaptation-related economic research pertaining to Tucson and southern Arizona.

Temperature and precipitation projections were made for the City of Tucson for 1950-2099. These include maps of extreme temperature risk, flood risk, and combinations of (a) flood risk and socio-economic status and (b) extreme temperature risk and socio-economic status. The projections and maps aid the City of Tucson Office of Sustainable Development, and the City’s Climate Change Committee in anticipating and planning for future risk.