July 2026: El Niño Highlight

El Niño conditions are underway in the Pacific, and forecasts indicate with near certainty that this El Niño event will strengthen and persist through the winter and into spring. This means we can expect increased chances of above normal precipitation in the coming fall–spring, and increased chances of lower temperatures than we may otherwise expect.

Forecast models also indicate there is a good chance this El Niño will be the strongest event ever recorded, but on the other hand, models have tended to overestimate the strength of El Niño events in the past. 

In any case, a stronger El Niño does not necessarily correspond to stronger climate impacts in the Southwest. El Niño does historically correspond to increased chances of above normal precipitation, fall–spring, but stronger El Niño events have not corresponded to the wettest years—so it’s best not to think of it as the amount of precipitation that increases in proportion to the strength of El Niño, but the chances of above normal precipitation that increase in proportion to the strength of El Niño.

In the near term, El Niño can also be expected to enhance the frequency and strength of tropical cyclones forming in the eastern Pacific. These storms can impact the Southwest in a variety of ways, sometimes suppressing monsoon activity and sometimes enhancing monsoon activity, depending on where they track and the surrounding atmospheric context. They can be severely impactful on the Southwest if they track directly into the region or interact with other, fall-type storm systems moving into the region, causing excessive rain and flooding.