August 2026: El Niño Highlight

El Niño conditions in the Pacific are strengthening, expected to continue to strengthen into fall, and persist through winter before weakening by spring 2027. 

·       For seasonal climate in the Southwest, this means increased chances of above-normal precipitation, fall–spring. 

·       Recent sea surface temperature observations indicate that El Niño conditions are just shy of the threshold criteria for a Very Strong El Niño, the highest category of El Niño strength. This has only happened 4 times in the past 50 years—in 2015–2016, 1997–1998, 1991–1992, and 1982–1983.

·       A stronger El Niño does not necessarily translate to greater impacts on seasonal climate in the Southwest, but it does lend increased confidence to the forecast of a general tendency toward wetter-than-normal conditions.

·       In the near term, enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the East Pacific could act as a source of atmospheric moisture during the monsoon–fall transition.  

See more in  ENSO Tracker