News & Updates

Originally published in the Feb 2015 CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

A definitive 2014–2015 El Niño forecast remains elusive. Weak El Niño conditions have continued in 2015, but recent backsliding in SST anomalies (Fig. 1), especially in the Niño 1-2 regions (Fig. 2), along with the ongoing lack of coordination between atmospheric and oceanic conditions, give little confidence that the 2014–2015 event will be characterized as anything more than a weak El Niño. (read more)

Image Source - NOAA-National Climatic Data Center

The Climate & Society Graduate Fellows Program supports University of Arizona graduate students whose work connects climate research and decision making. Fellows receive $5,000 and guidance from members of the CLIMAS research team (Climate Assessment for the Southwest) for one year. The program’s main objective is to train a group of students to cross the traditional boundaries of academic research into use-inspired science and applied research. While CLIMAS research generally occurs in the Southwest U.S., the Fellows program allows students to work anywhere in the world. (read more)

Just when it looked like we were getting a more definitive answer regarding El Niño, ongoing lack of cooperation on the part of the atmosphere continues to muddy forecasts moving into 2015. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain elevated across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1), and while temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region are within the range of a weak El Niño event, they have declined in the past month (Fig. 2). It is a common refrain in forecast bulletins that a lack of coupling between ocean and atmosphere is responsible for decreased confidence in an El Niño event this winter. Additionally, a lack of temperature gradient along the equatorial Pacific and little in the way of El Niño wind patterns further reduce confidence that a stronger event is on the horizon. (read more)

In the Jan 2015 Southwest Climate Outlook, we look back at 2014, including record temperatures for the Southwest, the recent trends in precipitation and drought, and forward into 2015 as we continue to wait for El Niño to give us a definitive answer. (read more)

After a very dry and warm November, the weather pattern turned more wintry and active in December bringing some much needed precipitation to Arizona. (read more)

From the Dec 18, 2014 - Southwest Climate Outlook - 

We are still waiting for a decisive signal, but conditions indicate we are near, or possibly already into, at least a weak El Niño event. (read more)