News & Updates

Oceanic and atmospheric indicators of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are still within the range of neutral (Figs. 1-2), although sea-surface temperatures more consistently hint at borderline El Niño conditions compared to atmospheric indicators. Outlooks and forecasts generally agree that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist through the summer and is the most likely scenario for the rest of 2017. A lingering possibility remains of an El Nino event developing later this fall, but forecasts since last month have shifted further from that likelihood. (read more)

Precipitation & Temperature: May precipitation was variable across the Southwest, ranging from average to much-above average in Arizona and below to above average in New Mexico (Fig. 1a). Similarly, May temperatures were average to above average across Arizona and ranged from below to above average in New Mexico (Fig. 1b). Taking a longer view, spring (March-May) precipitation was mostly below average in Arizona, while New Mexico ranged from below average in the southwestern region to above average in the northeast (Fig. 2a). Spring temperatures were much-above average across most of the Southwest (Fig. 2b). So far in June, temperatures have ranged from 0 to 8 degrees above normal across much of Arizona and New Mexico, with extreme heat forecast for the week of June 19. June precipitation has been sparse in most of Arizona, with infrequent storm activity mostly in southern and eastern New Mexico. (read more)

The Sawmill fire (Fig. 1) started, reportedly by recreational shooting, on April 23, 2017 in a grass- and shrub-covered area of low-elevation Arizona state lands approximately 40 miles south of Tucson. The fire spread quickly due to dry and windy conditions that day: the temperature reached 98 degrees, relative humidity ranged between 4 and 18 percent, and sustained winds reached 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. High winds, high temperatures, and low relative humidity continued through much of the following week, driving rapid growth of the fire (Fig. 2). (read more)

Precipitation & Temperature: April precipitation was average to above average in New Mexico, while most of Arizona was below average, including much-below average and record-dry conditions in the southwestern corner of the state (Fig. 1a). April temperatures were above average in nearly all of Arizona and New Mexico, with much-above average temperatures in southern Arizona (Fig. 1b). May has been dry in southern Arizona and New Mexico, while parts of northern Arizona and northern and eastern New Mexico have picked up decent precipitation relative to the normally dry May climate (Fig. 2). May temperatures in Arizona and New Mexico have ranged from 4 degrees below to 4 degrees above normal, while temperatures in higher latitudes and upper elevations (e.g. Upper Colorado River Basin, California Sierras, etc.) have been generally warmer than average, ranging from 0 to 8 degrees above normal. Water year precipitation has been normal to above normal across most of Arizona and New Mexico aside from a small pocket of dry conditions along the Arizona-Mexico border (Fig. 3). (read more)

Oceanic and atmospheric indicators are still within the range of neutral (Figs. 1-2), although sea-surface temperatures have more consistently hinted at El Niño compared to atmospheric indicators. Outlooks and forecasts generally agree that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to remain through the summer, but by mid-to-late 2017, chances of an El Niño event emerging become approximately equal to the chances of continued ENSO-neutral conditions. (read more)

The fire outlook for the next few months continues to reflect these conditions with above-normal wildfire risk for southern Arizona and New Mexico in May 2017 (Fig. 11), and across most of the southern half of Arizona in June 2017 (Fig. 12).

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More than 130 public sector and nonprofit organizations provide climate services to the eleven western states, yet until now there has been no centralized resource to connect climate information users with the wide array of information and services available.

The  is a searchable directory of climate service providers in the west that makes climate services easier to find. Its powerful search function allows users to customize their search based on the type of service, the geographic area, stakeholders served, and several additional parameters. It’s a match-making app for the climate world.

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March 2017 turned out to be the warmest non-El Niño March on record and the second warmest March overall (Figs. 5a-c).

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Similar to last month, oceanic and atmospheric indicators of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are in the range of neutral (Figs. 1-2), and these conditions are forecast to last through the spring and summer. Most forecasts and outlooks indicate that El Niño conditions could return in mid-to-late 2017, but these assessments come with the annual caveat of increased uncertainty associated with the “spring predictability barrier”, during which time the specifics regarding the possibility, timing, and intensity of an El Niño event are elusive. At any rate, the models and forecasts indicate a near-zero probability of La Niña in 2017, leaving forecasters to decide between the probability of neutral or El Niño conditions in later 2017. (read more)

Precipitation & Temperature: March precipitation totals were average to below average in most of the Southwest except for the northeastern corner of New Mexico (Fig. 1a). March temperatures were much-above average across the entire Southwest, with record warm temperatures in the southeast corner of Arizona and most of New Mexico (Fig. 1b). April precipitation to date has been below average for much of southern Arizona and New Mexico (Fig. 2), while April temperatures have been between 0 and 6 degrees above normal for most of the region. Water year precipitation has been normal to above normal for most of Arizona and New Mexico, aside from a dry region along much of the Arizona-Mexico border (Fig. 3). (read more)