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Southwest Climate Outlook Monsoon Tracker - October 2018

Friday, October 19, 2018

The precipitation rankings for the months that encompass the monsoon period (see Fig. 3 on p. 2) smooth out the variability over space and time that is characteristic of this season. The cumulative totals for the monsoon for most of the major metropolitan areas in the region (Fig. 1) came in at or above average, with the exception of El Paso. (read more)

Southwest Climate Outlook October 2018 - Climate Summary

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Precipitation and Temperature: Precipitation in September ranged from average to above average in New Mexico and from below average to much-above average in Arizona (Fig. 1a). September temperatures were warm throughout the region, ranging from much-above average to record warmest in Arizona and mostly above average to much-above average in New Mexico (Fig. 1b). (read more)

Southwest Climate Outlook Monsoon Tracker - September 2018

Friday, September 21, 2018

Monsoon precipitation varies considerably in space and time across the Southwest, as illustrated by monthly totals for various stations. (Fig. 1). Statewide patterns highlight widespread areas of both above- and below-average totals (see Fig. 4 on p. 5). The Fig. 2 plots of daily precipitation, temperature, and dewpoint temperature for the same stations as Fig. 1 capture the intermittent nature of monsoon precipitation as well as the persistent elevated dewpoint most locations experienced this summer. (read more)

Southwest Climate Outlook September 2018 - Climate Summary

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Precipitation and Temperature: Precipitation in August ranged from much-below average to average in New Mexico and from much-below average to above average in Arizona (Fig. 1a). August temperatures were mostly above average across Arizona and New Mexico, with swaths of much-above average and isolated locations of record-warmest conditions (Fig. 1b). (read more)

August 2018 SW Climate Outlook - Monsoon Tracker

Friday, August 17, 2018

Monsoon precipitation totals vary considerably across the Southwest. Monthly totals for select locations reveal near or below-average amounts compared to long-term averages (Fig. 1). There are widespread regions with above-average totals as well (see p. 5), revealing the challenge of characterizing monsoon performance using single stations. (read more)

 

Southwest Climate Outlook August 2018 - Climate Summary

Thursday, August 16, 2018

Precipitation and Temperature: Precipitation in July ranged from below average to much-above average in Arizona and New Mexico (Fig. 1a), illustrating the extent to which monsoon precipitation varies across the region. July temperatures were warmer than average in nearly all of Arizona and New Mexico (Fig. 1b), and since July 1, most of the daily temperature anomalies (deviations above or below the average temperature) have been warmer across the region (Fig. 2). (read more)

July 2018 SW Climate Outlook - Monsoon Tracker

Friday, July 20, 2018

In 2008, the National Weather Service (NWS) changed the definition of the start of the Southwest monsoon from a variable date based on locally measured conditions to a fixed date of June 15 (and a fixed end date of Sept 30). Prior to 2008, the flexible start date reflected the seasonal progression of the monsoon, with a considerable temporal gradient across the region (Fig. 1). (read more)

July 2018 SW Climate Update - ENSO Tracker

Thursday, July 19, 2018

Oceanic and atmospheric conditions remained ENSO-neutral over the last month (Figs. 1-2) and most ENSO forecasts and outlooks reflect that. On July 10, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) identified neutral conditions in oceanic and atmospheric indicators, but with indications of warming oceanic temperatures in the coming months. The agency forecast equal chances (50 percent) of either ENSO-neutral or El Niño by fall 2018. (read more)

 

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