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The fan made it difficult to hear, but the room was hot. Attendees were seated in tightly spaced rows, shoulder-to-shoulder. It was the Southeast Arizona Citizen’s Forum—a public meeting of the International Boundary and Water Commission that brings together stakeholders interested in water resources in the U.S.-Mexico border region. From my seat near the back, the rows of attendees looked like a motley assortment that together resembled a patchwork quilt—their clothing of various colors and styles—some wore suit jackets, others plaid shirts. There were cowboy boots, slacks, jeans, dress shirts, cardigans and work boots. As each person stood up to introduce themselves the diversity of stakeholders became even more apparent—representatives from U.S. Senator’s offices, state agency scientists, water utility professionals, local farmers, citizen activists, NGO employees, and concerned residents. Each raised their voice to be heard above the din of the air conditioner. They gathered to discuss water—each bringing a unique perspective. (read more)

Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are above-average across the equatorial Pacific (Figs. 1-2). The coupling between oceanic and atmospheric conditions that typically characterizes an El Nino event continues to be lacking, however, as atmospheric conditions lag behind. Forecasts and outlooks remain bullish on the emergence of an El Niño, and project atmospheric conditions to catch up with oceanic conditions. (read more)

Not quite El Niño? Widespread areas of above-average sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) now exist in the equatorial Pacific (Figs. 1-2), but atmospheric conditions have lagged behind. Most forecasts and outlooks, while still bullish on the emergence of an El Niño in 2018, identified current conditions as ENSO-neutral, but see an imminent shift in atmospheric circulations more characteristic of an an El Niño event. (read more)

Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are still within the range of ENSO-neutral (Figs. 1-2), but rising sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and shifting atmospheric conditions are reflected in recent forecasts, which call for an El Niño event forming by the end of 2018 and lasting through the winter. (read more)

Precipitation and Temperature: Precipitation in September ranged from average to above average in New Mexico and from below average to much-above average in Arizona (Fig. 1a). September temperatures were warm throughout the region, ranging from much-above average to record warmest in Arizona and mostly above average to much-above average in New Mexico (Fig. 1b). (read more)