Natural Resources Conservation Service

The 2014 Farm Bill permanently authorized the USDA Livestock Forage Program (LFP), which provides compensation to livestock producers who suffer grazing losses caused by drought and wildfires. The LFP bases payment eligibility on drought status categories of the U.S. Drought Monitor. Yet, there is evidence that Drought Monitor categories do not accurately capture the timescales of climate variability driving forage production and drought impacts across Arizona and New Mexico. Therefore, the current system may understate the extent of losses and need for compensation of Southwest ranchers. This study evaluates how the current application of the Drought Monitor in the LFP addresses drought and wildfire risks faced by Arizona and New Mexico ranchers and will seek out drought monitoring best practices specifically for rangeland systems. This project connects with several others in the Southwest aimed to improve the efficiency and efficacy of drought monitoring across the region. These projects support drought early warning as conceived by NIDIS and will help identify best practices in employing more relevant, timely, and unique drought monitoring strategies needed for AZ and NM.

Ongoing work includes:

• Engaging rural communities and ranchers in volunteer precipitation monitoring to improve the characterization of drought conditions in rural areas and to help inform the U.S. Drought Monitor (led by the USDA Southwest Climate Hub).
• Assessing the impact of drought on agricultural production and ranching in Arizona and developing an economic impact analysis of the Livestock Forage Program for Arizona (led by CLIMAS PI G. Frisvold, with A. Kerna Bickel and D. Duval).
• Understanding the impact of drought on the Rio Grande watershed in New Mexico (led by CLIMAS researcher C. Greene)

Resource managers face major challenges in developing medium- and long-term management plans considering the uncertainty arising from various climatic and socioeconomic factors. One approach to circumventing what can be a paralyzing level of uncertainty is Scenario Planning. This approach allows managers to “embrace uncertainty” and strategically prepare for a wide range of possible futures. In this project, we worked with the Cienegas Watershed Partnership to develop a set of scenario narratives, with specific scenario sets for each of four resource areas: Montane, Upland, Riparian, and Cultural. Participants were challenged to consider uncertainties and potential changes in climate, social, technological, economic, environmental, and political forces that are beyond the control of the Cienegas Watershed Partnership. Under the auspices of Scenario Planning, each resource group was able to consider and discuss future sets of conditions and management challenges that generally do not get a lot of attention.

Three newsletters were distributed to middle and upper management personnel across the various state and federal organizations that were involved in this project to keep them apprised of our progress.

This project examines the impacts of drought and climate change on climate sensitive sectors in the Southwest, focusing on agriculture, outdoor recreation, and tourism. Drafted a funded grant proposal on Economic Impacts on Drought on Agriculture, Recreational Tourism, and Rural Communities to a combination of NIDIS and the Arizona Department of Water Resources.

This project examines the potential for market mechanisms to facilitate voluntary reallocation of scarce water across different uses, specifically from agricultural to environmental purposes. It considers the scope for using reverse water auctions to obtain water for riparian restoration. This includes study of the economic theory behind reversed auctions as well as lessons from applications. It also examines the scope of the USDA Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program (CREP) to complement state and local programs for environmental water acquisitions.

Researchers at the University of California, Riverside have access to proprietary data on prices and quantities of water market trades. A hypothesis of the CLIMAS research is that USDA data on crop rental rates can be used to assess what likely water transfer prices will be. We plan to collaborate in the coming year, combining data to test this hypothesis.