City of Tucson

This study will provide an in-depth investigation of the survey results on how communities plan and govern extreme heat risk. The case study methods include semi-structured interviews with decision-makers and content analysis of plans for heat management and mitigation strategies. It builds upon the work started with the CLIMAS Urban Heat Island Mapping project that assessed the use of UHI maps and decision-making in the Southwest, a literature review on planning for extreme heat, and the survey of U.S. planners on extreme heat. To document the current state of emergent extreme heat governance in the U.S., five case study communities were selected, including Tucson, AZ; Houston, TX; Baltimore, MD; Detroit, MI; and Seattle, WA. These communities represent five National Climate Assessment regions, and four of the communities have participated in the NIHHIS-CAPA Heat Mapping Campaign.

The impacts of the urban heat island (UHI) and extreme heat events are well documented, including increases in heat-related public health issues, stresses on urban ecology, and energy usage to mitigate the higher temperatures. Increases in urban heat is of particular concern to cities in the Southwest, since it counteracts the cooling that otherwise normally occurs at night. While UHI mapping and modeling has become more sophisticated in recent years, there is still an information gap between the heat maps and models, urban planning and design strategies to decrease heat, and the use of that information in policy decision making. This study documented the current use of urban heat maps and models in communities in Arizona and New Mexico and evaluated best practices and opportunities to increase their usability.

Case Study - Urban Heat: Evaluating the Use of Urban Heat Island and Heat Increase Modeling in Land Use and Planning Decision-Making

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The project is designed to assist regional urban network managers of the Western Adaptation Alliance (WAA) in communicating with key constituencies in their communities to broaden support for action on climate adaptation, and to improve preparedness. Specifically, this involves (a) inventorying major extreme events of five key climate impacts—temperature extremes, stormwater/floods, drought, fire, and wind—for each WAA city and across the region, (b) recording specific actions taken following those events, (c) developing narratives for each class of impact, and (d) creating a toolkit for the highest priority impact—extreme heat events.

The project is designed to assist regional urban network managers of the Western Adaptation Alliance (WAA) in communicating with key constituencies in their communities to broaden support for action on climate adaptation, and to improve preparedness. Specifically, this involves (a) inventorying major extreme events of five key climate impacts—temperature extremes, stormwater/floods, drought, fire, and wind—for each WAA city and across the region, (b) recording specific actions taken following those events, (c) developing narratives for each class of impact, and (d) creating a toolkit for the highest priority impact—extreme heat events.

http://www.westernadaptationalliance.org/climate-event-database/

Climate extremes pose serious threats to human health and place increasing demands on municipal services and infrastructure, and they threaten the long-term sustainability of a region. These extremes have implications for rapid response and emergency management, but they also amplify the effects of underlying social, economic, and environmental vulnerabilities and have numerous potential long-term consequences in terms of planning for and dealing with potential disasters. In the Southwest, heat presents a unique opportunity to study the intersection between an acute event (e.g., a multi-day heat wave), and underlying vulnerabilities and risks. It also presents an opportunity to look for cross-sector impacts and potential cascades of impacts.

This project assists the City of Tucson and its contractors in conducting a vulnerability assessment for the community, regarding anticipated climate change impacts. Researchers will conduct studies and deliver best estimates on: (a) projections of future climate and hydrology of the Tucson Basin; and (b) projections of future climate and hydrology of Colorado River surface water supplies that are part of Tucson Water’s water resources portfolio. Researchers will also synthesize state-of-the-art research related to: (a) Tucson energy-water nexus issues; (b) Tucson’s urban heat island; (c) risk related to selected diseases; (d) local food security; and (e) projected impacts and risks related to urban ecosystems and ecosystems surrounding the City. CLIMAS researchers and University of Arizona researchers will synthesize research on vulnerability assessment and adaptation-related economic research pertaining to Tucson and southern Arizona.

Temperature and precipitation projections were made for the City of Tucson for 1950-2099. These include maps of extreme temperature risk, flood risk, and combinations of (a) flood risk and socio-economic status and (b) extreme temperature risk and socio-economic status. The projections and maps aid the City of Tucson Office of Sustainable Development, and the City’s Climate Change Committee in anticipating and planning for future risk.