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Precipitation & Temperature: Precipitation varied considerably across the Southwest in February, but temperatures remained warm throughout the region. Precipitation amounts ranged from below average to much-above average, with the wetter areas concentrated in southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico and the driest areas occurring in the Four Corners region and northeastern New Mexico (Fig. 1a). Temperatures ranged from average to above average in Arizona, and from above average to much-above average in New Mexico (Fig. 1b). (read more)

Winter precipitation (Dec-Feb (DJF)), during most weak La Niña events (ENSO Index Value between -0.5 and -1.0) has been below average, although a few years (1968, 1985) were notable outliers (Figs. 5-6). The monthly breakdown of weak, moderate, and strong La Niña events reveals that while the DJF totals for Tucson, AZ and Las Cruces, NM have been mostly below average, there have been individual months that recorded precipitation above the monthly average (represented by black lines on the plots). The most likely outcome for the Southwest this year is below-average precipitation totals for the winter season, but the way that these events unfold will have an impact on how residents perceive and experience this La Niña event (see the following page for examples from Arizona and New Mexico during La Niña events). (read more)

La Niña conditions continued for another month, with both atmospheric and oceanic conditions demonstrating a La Niña pattern (Figs. 1-2). Forecasts continue to suggest a weak-to-moderate La Niña event that has likely peaked and will gradually weaken this spring. (read more)

Precipitation & Temperature: January was warm and dry across the Southwest. Precipitation was average to below average in most of Arizona, and below average to much-below average in New Mexico (Fig. 1a). Temperatures were much-above average to record warmest in Arizona, and ranged from near average to much-above average in New Mexico (Fig. 1b). (read more)

The year 2017 was record warm across most of Arizona and New Mexico, in no small part thanks to the exceptionally warm conditions during the final three months of the year (and November in particular). (read more)

La Niña conditions have continued for another month at weak-to-moderate strength, with both atmospheric and oceanic conditions, including sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), demonstrating a consistent La Niña pattern (Figs. 1-2). Forecasts continue to suggest that a weak-to-moderate La Niña event will last through the winter before weakening this spring. (read more)

December Precipitation & Temperature: December precipitation ranged from average to much-below average across most of Arizona and New Mexico, with record-dry conditions along the western edge of Arizona and in pockets of central and eastern New Mexico (Fig. 1a). December temperatures were above average to record warmest in both states (Fig. 1b), continuing the pattern observed during fall 2017. (read more)

Looking more closely at winter Dec-Feb (DJF) precipitation, most weak La Niña events (ENSO Index Value between -0.5 and -1.0) recorded below-average precipitation, although a few years (1968, 1985) are notable outliers (Figs. 5-6). Looking at the monthly breakdown of weak, moderate, and strong La Niña events reveals that while the DJF totals for Tucson, AZ and Las Cruces, NM are mostly below average (Figs. 7-8), there have been some individual months that recorded precipitation above the monthly average (represented by black lines on the plots). (read more)

After a relatively late start, La Niña has ramped up over the past 30 days in terms of observed conditions and projected intensity, with sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) demonstrating a more consistent La Niña pattern (Figs. 1-2). Current forecasts and outlooks suggest a weak-to-moderate La Niña event lasting through the winter. (read more)