How Do We Know When the Monsoon is Over?

Across the southwest United States, the start of the summer monsoon season is pretty easy to recognize once you have experienced it firsthand a few times. Typically, one week it's hot and dry, and the next week, it's hot and sticky, but hopefully raining. (read more)

We are nearing the end of the 2014 season, and while it is difficult to characterize the highly variable day-to-day storms of any monsoon as “normal,” we have had a fairly typical if not above-average monsoon season in terms of precipitation. Regional assessment is complicated by the effects of a few extreme events that amplified precipitation amounts in parts of Arizona and New Mexico and caused an entire month’s or year’s worth of precipitation to fall in a single storm. (read more)

This post was originally published as part of the September 2014 Southwest Climate Outlook

The song remains the same this month with El Niño not quite here yet, but probably soon. This is now the seventh consecutive month since the NOAA Climate Prediction Center issued an “El Niño Watch” last March. The signs are a bit stronger once again, but it is getting late in the game...(read more)

This post was originally published as part of the September 2014 Southwest Climate Outlook

What are the different ways that moisture is tracked in the SW? 

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Yesterday (Monday Sept 08) brought considerable moisture to Southern Arizona and Nevada, as both the Tucson and Phoenix metropolitan areas saw considerable flooding, including record rainfall totals for both areas.  (read more)

Mike Crimmins with the Aug 2014 Rainlog Climate Summary (read more)

How do (Pacific) tropical storms affect the weather patterns of the SW?  What type of tropical storm paths affect weather in the SW? (read more)

In the August Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins talk about variability and timing of monsoon precipitation, and why frequent and sustained moisture might matter more than heavy infrequent rains (for drought, especially).  El Niño is still dragging its heels, but it still looks good for a weak to moderate event this winter. (read more)