Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido talk about El Niño forecast models and the way that different metrics are used to predict/forecast an El Niño event.
Taken from the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast
--Mike Crimmins - CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest & University of Arizona Cooperative Extension
--Zack Guido - University of AZ International Research and Application Program (IRAP)
--Ben McMahan - CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest
--Emily Huddleston - CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest
Image Credits (in order of appearance):
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies - April to December during building El Niño -
Source: NOAA/Climate.gov
Global Sea Surface Anomalies - La Niña (1988) vs El Niño (1997) - Source: NOAA/Climate.gov
Ocean SST anomalies during ENSO cycle - Source: http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com
Mid-Sept IRI/CPC Plume-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast - Source: IRI/CPC
April/May/June SST in Pacific Ocean - Source: NOAA/Climate.gov
Mid-Sept 2014 Plume of Model ENSO Predictions - Source: IRI/CPC
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) over time - Source: NOAA/CPC
El Niño vs. La Niña Winter Patterns - Source: NOAA