University of Washington

CLIMAS is a partner with The Nature Conservancy’s Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI). SWCCI was initiated in 2008 to engage conservation practitioners and land managers in local-scale climate change adaptation planning and implementation. This project aimed to: (1) further develop and expand impacts assessment activities in each of the Southwest’s Four Corners states (AZ, CO, NM and UT), (2) apply a vulnerability assessment tool being developed by the U.S. Forest Service, and (3) apply an adaptation planning framework developed by a Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) working group to a series of case-study sites in the four states. The case studies provided opportunities to further test and refine each component of the overall framework, by building on new research, strengthening existing partnerships, and laying the foundation for future innovation, including on-the-ground application and testing of adaptation strategies. Other partners included the Wildlife Conservation Society, U.S. Forest Service, University of Washington, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the Western Water Assessment RISA.

This project led to further collaboration between The Nature Conservancy, CLIMAS, and Western Water Assessment.

See The Nature Conservancy's webpage on climate change in New Mexico for more information.

Several recent studies estimate that the future streamflow of the Colorado River will decline due to drought and climate change. However, estimates from these projections range from less than 10% to a 45% decline by 2050. This cross-RISA research team explored why this large range exists and suggested ways that scientists and other stakeholders could apply these projections for future research and adaptation efforts.

Although the projections show drastically different amounts of streamflow reduction, it is still evident across all studies that Colorado River streamflow will be reduced due to climate change. Additionally, current reconstructions of the worst possible drought for the Colorado River are underestimates of the severity and duration of drought that has occurred, and that could occur, in the Colorado River Basin.