University of Arizona Water Resources Research Center

In response to prolonged drought conditions and declining storage capacity in Lake Mead, the Bureau of Reclamation called upon Colorado Basin States to develop new drought contingency plans to limit the draw-down of Lake Mead. Arizona’s Drought Contingency Plan calls for significant reductions in surface water supplies delivered to irrigated agriculture in Pinal County. This project considers the effects of these reduced water supplies on: crop production in Pinal county; Arizona dairy production and non-agricultural sectors in the Pinal County economy; and recreational demand around Lakes Mead and Powell. These surface water reductions may reduce the sustainability of agricultural production in Central Arizona.

This project examines the potential for market mechanisms to facilitate voluntary reallocation of scarce water across different uses, specifically from agricultural to environmental purposes. It considers the scope for using reverse water auctions to obtain water for riparian restoration. This includes study of the economic theory behind reversed auctions as well as lessons from applications. It also examines the scope of the USDA Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program (CREP) to complement state and local programs for environmental water acquisitions.

Researchers at the University of California, Riverside have access to proprietary data on prices and quantities of water market trades. A hypothesis of the CLIMAS research is that USDA data on crop rental rates can be used to assess what likely water transfer prices will be. We plan to collaborate in the coming year, combining data to test this hypothesis.

Water supplies in aquifer systems that are recharged by current precipitation are vulnerable to drought because recharge rates decrease during dry conditions. Preliminary studies on the groundwater source for Arivaca, AZ, suggest that recharge comes from contemporary monsoon rains. This project investigated the relationship between climate variability and groundwater to assess the vul­nerability of this community’s principal water source to drought; it also investigated options for sustainable water management.