Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

Several recent studies estimate that the future streamflow of the Colorado River will decline due to drought and climate change. However, estimates from these projections range from less than 10% to a 45% decline by 2050. This cross-RISA research team explored why this large range exists and suggested ways that scientists and other stakeholders could apply these projections for future research and adaptation efforts.

Although the projections show drastically different amounts of streamflow reduction, it is still evident across all studies that Colorado River streamflow will be reduced due to climate change. Additionally, current reconstructions of the worst possible drought for the Colorado River are underestimates of the severity and duration of drought that has occurred, and that could occur, in the Colorado River Basin.

The updated podcast is now broadcast monthly. visit: http://www.climas.arizona.edu/media/podcasts for more details.

Since Fall 2006, CLIMAS has provided online, interactive seasonal climate briefings and podcasts for the Southwest and northern Mexico. The briefings have provided an interactive supplement to the monthly Southwest Climate Outlook, including an up-to-date summary of seasonal hydroclimate conditions and forecasts. Stakeholders can ask questions about climate information and receive answers immediately. In 2008 and 2009, regional National Weather Service offices became active partners in the briefings, presenting analyses of recent conditions and forecasts. These briefings also generated news articles in local newspapers and radio shows.

This project evaluated the uses of water supply forecasts in the Upper Colorado River Basin by developing a series of rigorous user-needs assessments. Project goals included: (1) improving the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center’s water supply forecasts for various user groups; (2) expanding the user-base and enhancing their understanding of forecasts; and (3) understanding the role of uncertainty and risk in interpreting and applying the forecast. This research used a variety of social science methods to help product developers identify, engage, and build relationships with diverse users, with the end goal of constructing more useful climate products. These methods included educational workshops, focus groups, structured interviews, surveys, and decision games.