U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Resource managers face major challenges in developing medium- and long-term management plans considering the uncertainty arising from various climatic and socioeconomic factors. One approach to circumventing what can be a paralyzing level of uncertainty is Scenario Planning. This approach allows managers to “embrace uncertainty” and strategically prepare for a wide range of possible futures. In this project, we worked with the Cienegas Watershed Partnership to develop a set of scenario narratives, with specific scenario sets for each of four resource areas: Montane, Upland, Riparian, and Cultural. Participants were challenged to consider uncertainties and potential changes in climate, social, technological, economic, environmental, and political forces that are beyond the control of the Cienegas Watershed Partnership. Under the auspices of Scenario Planning, each resource group was able to consider and discuss future sets of conditions and management challenges that generally do not get a lot of attention.

Three newsletters were distributed to middle and upper management personnel across the various state and federal organizations that were involved in this project to keep them apprised of our progress.

Similar to many other metropolitan areas in the western United States, Albuquerque and surrounding cities in central New Mexico comprise a rapidly growing region in an arid environment. Planning for such an area in the 21st century requires addressing a mixture of challenges from congestion, sprawl, energy use, vehicle emissions, water supply, and potential changes in future regional climate along with related impacts.

Led by the U.S. Department of Transportation’s John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and with funding from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), National Park Service (NPS), and Bureau of Land Management (BLM), a group of federal agencies and the Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico (MRCOG) , is embarking on a project – the Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project – to help the region address these intertwined challenges. Through the process of scenario planning, which evaluates the costs and benefits of different types of, and strategies for, growth, development, and investments, this project aims to influence regional transportation and land-use decision making, and analyze strategies to reduce carbon emissions and prepare for impacts related to potential changes in future climate

Through engagement with a variety of agencies and stakeholders, we are developing methods, resources, and tools for incorporating climate change and non-stationarity into planning efforts. Through this project and leveraged activities, we are: a) developing and applying scenario planning to address uncertainty of climate change and other stressors; b) evaluating needs and approaches for system-wide climate literacy training of National Park staff; c) identifying the needs and capacities of the water resources sector related to climate change and non-stationarity; d) evaluating methods for combining paleoclimatological information with historical observations and climate change projections; e) communicating uncertainty of projections of Colorado River flows; f) supporting the National Climate Assessment.

To date, we have demonstrated a practical process for using scenario planning to consider climate change in the context of multiple stressors. the approach is now being used within the National Park Service. We have also developed a comprehensive curriculum for improving climate change literacy in the National Park Service.

Climate change presents challenges for land and resource managers that will require new management priorities, strategies, and policies. The Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) program produced a report for the US Fish and Wildlife Service based on the materials generated by participants at a workshop held in August 2008. This report, entitled Putting Knowledge into Action: Tapping the Institutional Knowledge of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Regions 2 and 8 to Address Climate Change, harnesses the ideas of workshop participants into a comprehensive and concise synthesis of information