Tucson Electric Power

TEP contracted with CLIMAS, based on a previous research partnership, to explore plausible scenarios for greenhouse gas and carbon reduction in their energy portfolio. These scenarios focus on data internal to TEP regarding the economics of portfolio decisions and external social, environmental, or climatic factors that might affect these decisions. CLIMAS provided a critical assessment of the overall process to ensure that robust data and models were used in this scenario development. The project analyzed energy portfolios based on emissions reduction targets and cumulative carbon budgets. These results identify whether the portfolio will hit specified warming targets (e.g., 1.5°C, 2°C) based on the carbon emissions. They also suggest expected temperature increases for each portfolio. Results from this project will inform the company’s 2020 integrated resource plan.

Cumulative emissions offer a robust and empirical method to assess the warming impact of utility energy portfolio scenarios. They assess both the timing and intensity of emissions reductions, and highlight the additional emissions reductions that result when reductions move more quickly than a straight linear reduction. This emphasizes that the way these targets are achieved may be just as important as the targets themselves.

The TEP Carbon Goals – Data and Process GitHub Repository — contains the data and analysis University of Arizona researchers used to guide Tucson Electric Power's carbon goals as part of their 2020 IRP process. The models, assumptions, code, documentation, and results are publicly available. The code is open source and fully transparent. Anyone can replicate, test, or improve our analysis, or update it based on new information or data. The repository was cited in a news story, published on TEP’s 2020 IRP web page, and cited in their 2020 IRP. Members of TEP’s Stakeholder Advisory Council have given comments, responded to ideas, and provided suggestions for the repository. https://github.com/CLIMAS-UA/tepcarbon/.

Arizona has experienced significant environmental, economic, and demographic changes over the last 50 years. General trends in climate, along with seasonal decadal variability (e.g., drought, flooding), impose cascading and interrelated impacts across multiple sectors (e.g., business, transportation, energy, infrastructure, etc.). Businesses are already experts at managing risk, but they face new challenges in anticipating these cascading effects linked to future climate-related impacts and associated changes in water availability, more severe/longer heat waves, and higher drought and flood risks.

The Arizona Business Resilience Initiative is developing a methodology for assessing business opportunities and managing risks to operations associated with climate change and climate variability. This research answers two questions:

1. Based on current state-of-knowledge in climate change impacts and vulnerability assessment, what are the most probable impacts on the company’s operations and projections due to climate change, and
2. What are actions that can be taken to anticipate or mitigate these risks, or to position the company to take advantage of new opportunities that anticipate and adapt to climate change?

Persistent drought and climate change affect water and energy costs, and hence choices made by farms, cities and industrial water and energy users, as well as energy and water providers’ operations. This project examines potential climate change and variability adaptation strategies related to water and energy in the Colorado River and Rio Grande Basins, including northwestern Mexico. Researchers are investigating how climate influences the market price of water and developing a menu of water and energy supply reliability tools with guidelines for using these tools.