Southwest Decision Resources

This project aims to better understand the different climate and environmental threats facing urban and rural communities in Arizona and New Mexico. The project focuses on: 1) participating in the lower San Pedro River conservation collaborative to provide expertise about drought and climate vulnerability that is tailored to specific regional challenges; 2) expanding our analysis in the Gila River basin to identify potential collaborators and regional priorities regarding drought and climate; 3) collaborating with Pima County Office of Emergency Management to update their hazard mitigation plan. This project contributes to the Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System (IMW DEWS)

Resource managers face major challenges in developing medium- and long-term management plans considering the uncertainty arising from various climatic and socioeconomic factors. One approach to circumventing what can be a paralyzing level of uncertainty is Scenario Planning. This approach allows managers to “embrace uncertainty” and strategically prepare for a wide range of possible futures. In this project, we worked with the Cienegas Watershed Partnership to develop a set of scenario narratives, with specific scenario sets for each of four resource areas: Montane, Upland, Riparian, and Cultural. Participants were challenged to consider uncertainties and potential changes in climate, social, technological, economic, environmental, and political forces that are beyond the control of the Cienegas Watershed Partnership. Under the auspices of Scenario Planning, each resource group was able to consider and discuss future sets of conditions and management challenges that generally do not get a lot of attention.

Three newsletters were distributed to middle and upper management personnel across the various state and federal organizations that were involved in this project to keep them apprised of our progress.