Pima Association of Governments Environmental Program

Resource managers face major challenges in developing medium- and long-term management plans considering the uncertainty arising from various climatic and socioeconomic factors. One approach to circumventing what can be a paralyzing level of uncertainty is Scenario Planning. This approach allows managers to “embrace uncertainty” and strategically prepare for a wide range of possible futures. In this project, we worked with the Cienegas Watershed Partnership to develop a set of scenario narratives, with specific scenario sets for each of four resource areas: Montane, Upland, Riparian, and Cultural. Participants were challenged to consider uncertainties and potential changes in climate, social, technological, economic, environmental, and political forces that are beyond the control of the Cienegas Watershed Partnership. Under the auspices of Scenario Planning, each resource group was able to consider and discuss future sets of conditions and management challenges that generally do not get a lot of attention.

Three newsletters were distributed to middle and upper management personnel across the various state and federal organizations that were involved in this project to keep them apprised of our progress.

Climate extremes pose serious threats to human health and place increasing demands on municipal services and infrastructure, and they threaten the long-term sustainability of a region. These extremes have implications for rapid response and emergency management, but they also amplify the effects of underlying social, economic, and environmental vulnerabilities and have numerous potential long-term consequences in terms of planning for and dealing with potential disasters. In the Southwest, heat presents a unique opportunity to study the intersection between an acute event (e.g., a multi-day heat wave), and underlying vulnerabilities and risks. It also presents an opportunity to look for cross-sector impacts and potential cascades of impacts.

As the southwestern United States moves into an increasingly different climate than anything we’ve experienced in the modern era, elected officials, city managers, urban sustainability officers, planners, and resource managers are facing decisions that are likely to benefit from insights that emerge from ongoing climate science, impacts research, and promising adaptation practices. In an effort to both inform these decisions and learn from these important stakeholders in Arizona, this project seeks to create a collaborative environment among stakeholders and climate researchers to stimulate and support climate adaptation and resiliency efforts across the state. The project has three goals: 1) provide useful, state-of-the-art climate knowledge to municipal leaders to encourage using climate science in long-range decision processes; 2) work with urban managers and planners to develop tangible products and/or processes that will help planners and decision makers incorporate climate information into their unique planning documents and policies; 3) study the process of engagement and results from the collaboration to contribute to the growing literature about best practices for climate change adaptation.