Cienegas Watershed Partnership

In partnership with The Nature Conservancy, CLIMAS researchers are assessing the impacts of precipitation variability and temperature changes on vegetation production and mortality and identifying optimal drought monitoring metrics. It focuses on the Las Cienegas National Conservation Area (NCA) to examine longer-term drought impacts in this multi-use Bureau of Land Management NCA. The assessment shows how seasonality and precipitation timing and frequency relate to monthly scale precipitation-based drought indices. The modeling approach was also used to assess the performance of temperature-based indices and further explore the role of increasing temperatures in driving drought stress across the region. CLIMAS researchers have also been working with the Las Cienegas Watershed group as well and may be able to recommend specific drought indices for their ongoing State of the Watershed monitoring.

Resource managers face major challenges in developing medium- and long-term management plans considering the uncertainty arising from various climatic and socioeconomic factors. One approach to circumventing what can be a paralyzing level of uncertainty is Scenario Planning. This approach allows managers to “embrace uncertainty” and strategically prepare for a wide range of possible futures. In this project, we worked with the Cienegas Watershed Partnership to develop a set of scenario narratives, with specific scenario sets for each of four resource areas: Montane, Upland, Riparian, and Cultural. Participants were challenged to consider uncertainties and potential changes in climate, social, technological, economic, environmental, and political forces that are beyond the control of the Cienegas Watershed Partnership. Under the auspices of Scenario Planning, each resource group was able to consider and discuss future sets of conditions and management challenges that generally do not get a lot of attention.

Three newsletters were distributed to middle and upper management personnel across the various state and federal organizations that were involved in this project to keep them apprised of our progress.

Through engagement with a variety of agencies and stakeholders, we are developing methods, resources, and tools for incorporating climate change and non-stationarity into planning efforts. Through this project and leveraged activities, we are: a) developing and applying scenario planning to address uncertainty of climate change and other stressors; b) evaluating needs and approaches for system-wide climate literacy training of National Park staff; c) identifying the needs and capacities of the water resources sector related to climate change and non-stationarity; d) evaluating methods for combining paleoclimatological information with historical observations and climate change projections; e) communicating uncertainty of projections of Colorado River flows; f) supporting the National Climate Assessment.

To date, we have demonstrated a practical process for using scenario planning to consider climate change in the context of multiple stressors. the approach is now being used within the National Park Service. We have also developed a comprehensive curriculum for improving climate change literacy in the National Park Service.