Sonoran Institute

This project examines community perceptions and decisions about climate science, economics, and policies associated with resilience strategies that address increasing water scarcity in the Southwest. Strategies to be evaluated include: investments in built infrastructure (e.g., reservoirs and pipelines); incentive-based risk-sharing agreements; and watershed ecosystem services. The project emphasizes how ecosystem services can buffer water impacts of climate change, as well as the potential for climate mitigation as a strategy to enhance water supply security. Project outputs will include a replicable method for co-producing resilient water-related climate adaptation and mitigation strategies, including scientific and economic evaluation. Potential outcomes include improved water supply reliability and cooperation on adapting to shortages for a regional economy that exceeds $3 trillion annually.

The impacts of the urban heat island (UHI) and extreme heat events are well documented, including increases in heat-related public health issues, stresses on urban ecology, and energy usage to mitigate the higher temperatures. Increases in urban heat is of particular concern to cities in the Southwest, since it counteracts the cooling that otherwise normally occurs at night. While UHI mapping and modeling has become more sophisticated in recent years, there is still an information gap between the heat maps and models, urban planning and design strategies to decrease heat, and the use of that information in policy decision making. This study documented the current use of urban heat maps and models in communities in Arizona and New Mexico and evaluated best practices and opportunities to increase their usability.

Adaptation in water management is a greatly revered yet poorly understood goal and concept. The U.S. suffers from what's been called an “adaptation deficit”, but there is little comprehensive research on how to advance adaptation. Previous research has found that case studies of how adaptation is actually being delivered, and barriers to effective delivery (e.g., information, capacity, institutions), is a critical missing component of existing adaptation research. This project addresses this gap both theoretically and methodologically in four study sites in the Arizona-Sonora region of the U.S-Mexico border: Tucson, AZ; Yuma, AZ and the Colorado River delta; the Upper Gulf of California (from Puerto Peñasco, Sonora, north); and Hermosillo, Sonora. The key research questions guiding this project include: what is the role of networks in governance and the implications for using climate knowledge; what are the most effective climate services to support efforts to adapt; and how can decision-support tools build institutional adaptive capacity. Researchers examine these questions via interactive semi-structured interviews, a webinar series on the border climate, and a scientist-stakeholder symposium. Project outputs will include pilot development of an institutional adaptive capacity index; presentation of results at professional meetings, papers in peer-reviewed journals, workshop and symposia reports, the Webinar series, quarterly production of the Transborder Climate newsletter, and a project website.

Persistent drought and climate change affect water and energy costs, and hence choices made by farms, cities and industrial water and energy users, as well as energy and water providers’ operations. This project examines potential climate change and variability adaptation strategies related to water and energy in the Colorado River and Rio Grande Basins, including northwestern Mexico. Researchers are investigating how climate influences the market price of water and developing a menu of water and energy supply reliability tools with guidelines for using these tools.

The Colorado River’s resources are over-allocated to seven states in the U.S. and two in Mexico, with water shortages heightened by fast-growing urban populations and intensified agricultural use on both sides of the border. The critical water problem in the Colorado Delta region affects communities in Arizona, California, Baja California, and Sonora. The Colorado Delta supports significant remnant wetland areas of high biodiversity and important riparian habitats for endangered species, such as the vaquita porpoise, the Yuma clapper rail, the bobcat, and the desert pupfish. As drought, climate change, and policy decisions reduce the water flows in the Colorado River, the Delta’s wetlands are shrinking and deteriorating. These riparian areas are also important to thousands of people living in or near the Delta, who rely upon the riparian resources for ecotourism, hunting and fishing, and family recreation.

This research aimed to assess the perceptions of climate variability and climate change held by institutional stakeholders and local communities across the U.S.-Mexico Delta region and to examine the links between regional riparian wetland areas, water conservation, and drought and climate change, as perceived by local communities and institutions.