Southwest Climate Outlook September 2006

Date issued

September Climate Summary
Drought – The record monsoon rains have brought significant short-term drought
relief to the Southwest, particularly in New Mexico. Longer-term relief will be dependent
on adequate winter rain and snow.
• Drought conditions are expected to continue to improve in New Mexico
and some improvement is likely in Arizona.
• Reservoirs in Arizona and New Mexico were partly replenished by the
abundant monsoon rains.
Temperature – Since the start of the water year on October 1, 2005 temperatures
over most of the Southwest have been above average.
Precipitation – Since the start of the monsoon season precipitation has been well
above average across most of the Southwest. Heavy rainfall has caused extensive
flooding in many areas in Arizona and New Mexico.
Climate Forecasts – Experts predict increased chances of warmer-than-average
temperatures and above-average precipitation for most of the Southwest during the
upcoming winter.
El Niño – El Niño conditions have developed and are expected to continue into
early 2007.
The Bottom Line – Some drought relief has occurred due to the abundant rain since
the start of the monsoon season, but that relief may be limited to short-term impacts
due to the accumulated effects of long-term, multi-year precipitation deficits.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.