Southwest Climate Outlook September 2005

Date issued

September Climate Summary
– Abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought continue in southeastern and northeastern Arizona and western and central New Mexico.
• Drought status has improved in portions of eastern Arizona and central
New Mexico.
Most reservoirs are above last year’s storage, but they remain below average.
Temperature –
Average temperatures during the water year range from several degrees below average to several degrees above average. The past 30 days were mainly
warmer than average.
Precipitation –
Water year precipitation continues to show much variation with
some locations reporting more than 130 percent of average, while other areas have
received only 70–90 percent of average. Much of the Southwest was below 70 percent of average during the past 30 days.
Climate Forecasts –
Models indicate increased chances of above-average temperatures in the Southwest through March 2006. Increased chances of drier-than-
average conditions exist through February 2006 across most of the region.
El Niño –
Output from probabilistic forecast models shows that neutral conditions
are most likely to continue through August 2006.
The Bottom Line –
Drought should persist along the Arizona-New Mexico border,
and wildland fire potential is above average in some areas as the Southwest enters
the typically dry fall season.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.