September 2004 Climate Summary
Hydrological Drought– Hydrological drought continues for much of the Southwest.
• Agricultural drought status has been added to some portions of Arizona and New Mexico.
• Far eastern New Mexico remains free of all drought categories.
• Storage in many reservoirs in Arizona and New Mexico continues to decrease.
Precipitation– Precipitation for the water year is below average for most of Arizona and New Mexico. Monsoonal rains have been rare since mid-August. Precipitation from the remnants of Hurricane Javier did help the Southwest, but the climate products capturing this event will appear in next month’s outlook.
Temperature– The Southwest was generally cooler than average over the past 30 days.
Climate Forecasts– Seasonal forecasts indicate slightly increased probabilities of above-average temperatures for much of Arizona through March. Increased chances of cooler-than-average conditions are predicted for eastern New Mexico through January. There are no predicted anomalies in precipitation until the December–February period.
El Niño– A weak El Niño is in progress, and it is expected to strengthen slightly in the next several months. Effects of this event may not be seen until late winter or early spring.
The Bottom Line– Hydrological drought is expected to persist in Arizona through December, while New Mexico may see limited improvement.