Southwest Climate Outlook October 2008 Water Year in Review

October Climate Summary
Drought – Summer monsoon thunderstorm activity through late August helped
improve short-term drought conditions across much of southern Arizona.
Temperature – The new water year has begun with temperatures 2–4 degrees Fahrenheit
cooler than average across all of Arizona and western New Mexico.
Precipitation – The beginning of New Mexico’s water year has been very wet, while
Arizona’s has been very dry.
ENSO – ENSO-neutral conditions are once again the dominant pattern across the
Pacific basin; the probability continues to increase of ENSO-neutral conditions persisting
through this fall and into the winter.
Climate Forecasts – Temperatre forecasts call for equal chances of above-, below-,
and near-normal temperatures in most of the region west of the Rockies throughout
the remainder of 2008 and into early 2009. Precipitation forecasts call for slightly
increased chances of below-average precipitation for the same period.
The Bottom Line – New Mexico’s soil moisture is favorable for crops, due in part
to recent wet conditions, while dry conditions in Arizona have made soils extremely
dry. With respect to water storage, Lakes Powell and Mead declined by 236,000
acre-feet during September 2008. Although the combined levels fell in the last
month, they are significantly higher than they were one year ago. Reservoir storage
in New Mexico also slightly declined in September.