Southwest Climate Outlook October 2007 Water Year in Review

October Climate Summary
Drought – Short-term drought conditions have improved slightly across Arizona
due to some precipitation from frontal storms in September, while conditions
across northeastern New Mexico have worsened. The National Drought Monitor
continues to show moderate to severe drought across much of Arizona with some
expansion into New Mexico due to persistent below-average precipitation levels
over the past several months.
Temperature – Temperatures were generally below-average across most of Arizona.
New Mexico saw the opposite pattern, with temperatures above-average over the
past thirty days.
Precipitation – Both Arizona and New Mexico observed below-average precipitation
across most areas over the past thirty days. Many locations in central Arizona
and central New Mexico saw precipitation amounts of less than 25 percent of average
for the period.
Climate Forecasts – Seasonal climate forecasts indicate above-average temperatures
and below-average precipitation in the Southwest through the fall and into the
winter season. Developing La Niña conditions are responsible for the below-average
precipitation forecast while long-term trends in increasing temperatures strongly
influence the temperature forecast.
The Bottom Line – La Niña is the big story this month with the prospect of below-
average precipitation amounts plaguing the Southwest this upcoming winter.
Recent below-average precipitation amounts across Arizona and New Mexico as
well as the development of new drought impacts across New Mexico may continue
to expand and increase through the late fall into the winter season.