Southwest Climate Outlook October 2007 Water Year in Review

Date issued

October Climate Summary
Drought – Short-term drought conditions have improved slightly across Arizona
due to some precipitation from frontal storms in September, while conditions
across northeastern New Mexico have worsened. The National Drought Monitor
continues to show moderate to severe drought across much of Arizona with some
expansion into New Mexico due to persistent below-average precipitation levels
over the past several months.
Temperature – Temperatures were generally below-average across most of Arizona.
New Mexico saw the opposite pattern, with temperatures above-average over the
past thirty days.
Precipitation – Both Arizona and New Mexico observed below-average precipitation
across most areas over the past thirty days. Many locations in central Arizona
and central New Mexico saw precipitation amounts of less than 25 percent of average
for the period.
Climate Forecasts – Seasonal climate forecasts indicate above-average temperatures
and below-average precipitation in the Southwest through the fall and into the
winter season. Developing La Niña conditions are responsible for the below-average
precipitation forecast while long-term trends in increasing temperatures strongly
influence the temperature forecast.
The Bottom Line – La Niña is the big story this month with the prospect of below-
average precipitation amounts plaguing the Southwest this upcoming winter.
Recent below-average precipitation amounts across Arizona and New Mexico as
well as the development of new drought impacts across New Mexico may continue
to expand and increase through the late fall into the winter season.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.