Southwest Climate Outlook October 2006 Water Year in Review

Date issued

October Climate Summary
Drought – Drought conditions have continued to improve in the Southwest, and
New Mexico is nearly drought free. Longer-term relief for the Southwest will depend
on adequate winter rain and snow.
• Drought conditions are expected to continue to improve in Arizona over the
next few months.
• Reservoirs in Arizona and New Mexico changed little since last month.
Temperature – Since the start of the water year on October 1, temperatures over
most of the Southwest have been above average.
Precipitation – Since the start of the water year precipitation has been above average
across most of the Southwest, but below average in southwestern Arizona.
Climate Forecasts – Experts predict increased chances of warmer-than-average
temperatures and above-average precipitation for most of the Southwest during the
upcoming winter.
El Niño – El Niño conditions have persisted this fall and are expected to continue
into spring 2007.
The Bottom Line – Welcome drought relief has occurred due to abundant rains in
the monsoon season and in the early fall, particularly in New Mexico, but that relief
may be limited to short-term impacts due to the accumulated effects of long-term,
multi-year precipitation deficits.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.