Southwest Climate Outlook October 2004

Date issued

October 2004 Climate Summary

Hydrological Drought– Hydrological drought continues for much of the Southwest.
• Short-term drought status has decreased in southeastern and west-central New Mexico and north-central Arizona.
• Far eastern New Mexico remains free of all drought categories.
• Storage in many reservoirs in the Southwest continues to decrease.

Precipitation– Eastern New Mexico and the western third of Arizona have experienced much wetter-than-average conditions at the beginning of the new water year, while precipitation in central and southern Arizona and along the states’ border is below average.

Temperature– Over the last 30 days, most of the Southwest has experienced somewhat cooler-than-average temperatures, with much cooler-than-average conditions in eastern New Mexico and warmer-than-average conditions around Lake Mead.
Climate Forecasts– Seasonal forecasts indicate increased chances of above-average temperatures for Arizona and western New Mexico through April. Precipitation forecasts call for increased chances of wetter-than-average conditions in late winter and early spring.

El Niño– A weak El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Experts believe that the strongest effects may not occur in the Southwest until late winter or early spring.

The Bottom Line– Short-term drought status is expected to improve in the Southwest through January.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.