Southwest Climate Outlook November 2008

November Climate Summary
Drought – Short-term drought conditions remained virtually the same as one
month ago, with the southern half of Arizona drought free and the northern half of
the state abnormally dry. In New Mexico, short-term drought conditions worsened
slightly from one month ago.
Temperature – Since the beginning of the water year on October 1, temperatures
have been 1 to 4 degrees F above average across both states.
Precipitation – Most of New Mexico and Arizona have experienced extremely
dry conditions since October 1 as a result of strong high pressure systems over the
southwestern U.S. that have forced cold fronts to pass to the north.
ENSO – The El Niño-Southern Oscillation remained in a neutral phase once again
this month, with near-average sea surface temperatures across much of the equatorial
Pacific Ocean
Climate Forecasts – The long-lead precipitation forecasts show slightly increased
chances of below-average precipitation for most of the southern half of the U.S.
through March 2009. Long-lead temperature forecasts suggest that there are slightly
higher chances of above-average temperatures through February 2009 in New Mexico
and eastern Colorado.
The Bottom Line – Since the beginning of the water year on October 1, most of
Arizona and New Mexico have been warm and dry. The dry conditions are due to
strong high pressure systems over the southwestern U.S. that forced the cold fronts
to move north. Storms forecasted to move over the Southwest during Thanksgiving
week should help moisten the landscape.