Southwest Climate Outlook November 2007

Date issued

November Climate Summary
Drought – Short-term drought conditions continued to improve slightly across
Arizona due to some early fall precipitation while conditions across northeastern
New Mexico have continued to worsen. The National Drought Monitor continues
to show moderate to severe drought across much of Arizona. An expansion of
abnormally dry conditions into New Mexico is due to below-average precipitation
levels persisting over the past several months.
Temperature – Temperatures across Arizona and New Mexico have been above average
for the past thirty days. Arizona has been especially warm, with temperatures
ranging from 4 to 6 degrees F above average. New Mexico temperatures were generally
2 to 4 degrees F above average.
Precipitation – Both Arizona and New Mexico observed much below-average precipitation
over the past thirty days. Most locations in Arizona and New Mexico saw
less than 25 percent of average precipitation for the period.
Climate Forecasts – Seasonal climate forecasts paint the Southwest with an aboveaverage
temperature and below-average precipitation forecast through the fall and
into the winter season. The current La Niña event is to blame for the below-average
precipitation forecast and, in part, for the above-average temperature forecast.
The Bottom Line – La Niña continues to be the big story this month with the
prospect of below-average precipitation amounts plaguing the Southwest this upcoming
winter. The fall dry spell has continued across Arizona and New Mexico
over the past month and may continue into the winter with La Niña. This is
prompting concerns of expanding and deepening drought conditions across both
Arizona and New Mexico.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.