Southwest Climate Outlook November 2004

Date issued

November 2004 Climate Summary

Hydrological Drought

Hydrological drought continues for much of the Southwest.

- Eastern and southeastern New Mexico is free of all drought categories.

- Storage in many reservoirs in Arizona and New Mexico held nearly steady this month.

- Northeastern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico remain in extreme drought.


- Western Arizona and eastern New Mexico are much wetter than average, while the remainder of the Southwest is dry.

– Water year temperatures are generally cooler than average in the Southwest.

Climate Forecasts
– Long-lead forecasts call for increased chances of above-average temperatures in Arizona and western New Mexico for the next six months. Slightly increased chances of wetter-than-average conditions are predicted from January to May.

El Niño
– Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are indicative of a weak El Niño, which is expected to continue into early spring, but the impact of this event is currently uncertain.

The Bottom Line
– The Southwest is expected to see limited improvement in drought conditions through early 2005.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.