Southwest Climate Outlook May 2005

Date issued

May Climate Summary
Hydrological Drought
– Drought impacts continue to ease in much of the South
west, as snowmelt runoff feeds reservoirs.
• Lake Powell storage is expected to increase through July 2005. However,
combined storage at Lake Powell and Lake Mead is still well below capacity.
• Storage in most Arizona and New Mexico reservoirs continued to increase.
Most New Mexico reservoirs, remain below 35 percent of capacity.
– During the past 30 days temperatures in the Southwest were gener
ally cooler than average.
– Water year precipitation is above average for most of the South
west. During the past 30 days, southern Arizona and southwestern and eastern New
Mexico have been drier than average. Northern Arizona and northwestern New
Mexico received above-average precipitation, chiefly during late April.
Climate Forecasts
– Seasonal temperature outlooks call for increased chances of
above-average temperatures in the Southwest. Seasonal precipitation outlooks call
for slightly increased chances of below-average precipitation in the Southwest this
summer. Precipitation is rarely predicted in the summer.
El Niño
– Neutral conditions have the highest probability of occurrence in the
tropical Pacific Ocean, although the probability of continuing El Niño conditions
remains above average.
The Bottom Line
– Above-average streamflow, from runoff of above-average snow
pack, especially in northern New Mexico, will continue to ameliorate hydrological
drought conditions Southwest. Summer season forecasts indicate increased chances
of above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation in the Southwest.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.