Southwest Climate Outlook June 2009

Date issued

June Climate Summary
Drought– Drought conditions in Arizona and New Mexico improved slightly, as late May and early June rains soaked many parts of the states.
Temperature– After a record-breaking streak of warmer-than-average temperatures in early May, late May and early June have been generally cooler than average across the Southwest.
Precipitation– A persistent low pressure trough has brought unusual late spring-early summer precipitation to the Southwest in the past 30 days. Most of Arizona and western New Mexico have received 150 to more than 800 percent of average precipitation.
ENSO– Conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean appear favorable for a transition into El Niño conditions in June–August; the expectation is for a weak El Niño into next year.
Monsoon– The start of the monsoon season officially began on June 15 in Arizona, and the expectation for a soggy first-half of the monsoon season continues.
Climate Forecasts– Temperature forecasts through summer show a tilt in the odds toward warmer temperatures, while precipitation forecasts suggest a good chance of wetter-than-average conditions through the monsoon season.
The Bottom Line– It rained somewhere in Arizona every day from May 18 to the end of May, contributing to above-average precipitation in most of the state. Western New Mexico saw similar rain events, and both states experienced improvements in drought conditions. With the expectation that the early monsoon season will be soggy, forecasts suggest additional drought improvement.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

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