Southwest Climate Outlook June 2008

Date issued

June Climate Summary
Drought – March and April were extremely dry across Arizona, causing short-term
drought status to be downgraded one category for most of the state’s watersheds.
Temperature – In the past month, temperatures in western Arizona and northwestern
New Mexico have been slightly colder than average, while temperatures in
southeastern Arizona and southwestern and north central New Mexico have been
slightly above average.
Precipitation – In the past thirty days, precipitation has been localized and isolated
in both states, typical of convective thunderstorms. Many regions in Arizona have
received greater than 200 percent of the average precipitation; some isolated storms
have caused precipitation to be greater than 800 percent of the average values.
ENSO – A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions is underway. Sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean
have warmed since mid-February. The atmospheric manifestation of La Niña is also
weakening. Most forecast models indicate ENSO-neutral SSTs during the coming
June–August season.
Climate Forecasts – Temperature forecasts for the Southwest predict increased
chances of above-average temperatures for most of the region through December.
The precipitation outlook for Arizona and New Mexico calls for equal chances of
above-, near-, and below-average precipitation through December.
The Bottom Line – Temperatures continued to be above average for much of
the Southwest. This trend is expected to continue. Precipitation was variable. The
amount of monsoon rain, though difficult to predict, may provide drought relief in
some areas.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.