Southwest Climate Outlook June 2007

June Climate Summary
Drought – Severe to extreme drought conditions continue across Arizona while
most of New Mexico remains drought-free this month. Western portions of Arizona
along the Colorado River are experiencing the worst in drought conditions, with
decreasing intensity eastward across the state.
Temperature – The same story continues this month with New Mexico experiencing
below-average temperatures, and Arizona experiencing above-average temperatures
in the short-term. North-central and south-eastern Arizona had the greatest
positive departures from average, with temperatures 2–3 degrees F above-average
over the past thirty days.
Precipitation – New Mexico continued to experience above-average precipitation
this past month with many locations reporting 100–400 percent of normal precipitation.
Several low pressure systems produced thunderstorms across central and
eastern portions of New Mexico late in May and again in mid-June. Arizona saw
some of this weather activity in southeastern and north-central portions of the state.
Climate Forecasts – Temperature forecasts remain confident that much of Arizona
and eastern New Mexico will see above-average temperatures throughout the summer.
No precipitation forecasts have been made for the Southwest, indicating equal
chances of above-average, average, or below-average precipitation for the region.
The Bottom Line – Little has changed since last month, with severe to extreme
drought conditions remaining over most of Arizona, while New Mexico holds on
to generally drought-free conditions. Patterns of monsoon precipitation across the
Southwest will be critical in determining where short-term drought conditions either
improve or worsen over the summer.