Southwest Climate Outlook June 2005

Date issued

June Climate Summary
Hydrological Drought
– Despite unusual spring rainfall in parts of the Southwest,
abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought persist.
• Lake Powell topped 10 million acre-feet for the first time since July 27, 2004.
• Storage in most New Mexico reservoirs increased, but statewide storage was
still below average at the end of May.
– The water year has been near average in the Southwest, while the
past 30 days were mainly above average.
– Most locations, except portions of southeastern Arizona, are much
wetter than average for the water year.
Climate Forecasts
– NOAA-CPC long-lead outlooks show increased chances of
above-average temperatures for much of the Southwest through December. In
creased chances of drier-than-average conditions are expected through September.
El Niño
– Probabilistic forecasts indicate that the current neutral ENSO conditions
in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to continue through early 2006.
The Bottom Line
– Abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought will persist
through September
in portions of the Southwest
. Wildfire potential will remain
above average as grasses continue to cure.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.