Southwest Climate Outlook June 2004

Date issued

Hydrological Drought – Hydrological drought continues in the Southwest.

• Arizona and New Mexico reservoirs are still at well below-average levels.

• Surface and groundwater levels are being affected by the ongoing drought: there have been increasing reports of towns in rural Arizona and New Mexico adopting water restrictions and conservation measures.

• Current storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead is well below average and is expected to decline through the summer months.

Precipitation – Mid-May through mid-June has been drier than average across

Arizona and New Mexico. This is important in eastern New Mexico, where June precipitation accounts for more than 10 percent of the annual precipitation total.

Temperature – Temperatures have been above average across most of the Southwest during the past month, consistent with long-term trends for the region.

Climate Forecasts – Seasonal forecasts indicate considerably increased probabilities of above-average temperatures across Arizona and most of New Mexico through the summer months.

El Niño – Conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain neutral. Forecasts do not indicate a strong likelihood for the development of either El Niño (wet Southwest winter) or La Niña (dry Southwest winter).

The Bottom Line – Hydrological drought is expected to persist in most of the Southwest for the foreseeable future.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.