Hydrological Drought – Hydrological drought continues in the Southwest.
• Arizona and New Mexico reservoirs are still at well below-average levels.
• Surface and groundwater levels are being affected by the ongoing drought: there have been increasing reports of towns in rural Arizona and New Mexico adopting water restrictions and conservation measures.
• Current storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead is well below average and is expected to decline through the summer months.
Precipitation – Mid-May through mid-June has been drier than average across
Arizona and New Mexico. This is important in eastern New Mexico, where June precipitation accounts for more than 10 percent of the annual precipitation total.
Temperature – Temperatures have been above average across most of the Southwest during the past month, consistent with long-term trends for the region.
Climate Forecasts – Seasonal forecasts indicate considerably increased probabilities of above-average temperatures across Arizona and most of New Mexico through the summer months.
El Niño – Conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain neutral. Forecasts do not indicate a strong likelihood for the development of either El Niño (wet Southwest winter) or La Niña (dry Southwest winter).
The Bottom Line – Hydrological drought is expected to persist in most of the Southwest for the foreseeable future.