Southwest Climate Outlook July 2009

July Climate Summary
Drought – Monsoon rains have helped ease drought conditions in Arizona, particularly in the southeast region. The rains also have helped New Mexico, decreasing the extent of moderate and severe drought conditions.
Temperature – Only a few areas in western New Mexico and southern Arizona have had below-average temperatures.
Precipitation – Predictions of an early and wet monsoon have come true for central and southeast New Mexico and south-central Arizona.
ENSO – The NOAA-Climate Prediction Center has officially declared an El Niño event. El Niño conditions are expected to continue to develop during the next several months, evolving into a weak to moderate event that lasts through the 2009–10 winter.
Monsoon – The forecast for the 2009 monsoon called for an early start to the rainy season accompanied by above-average precipitation for the first half of the season. After the first month of rains, the forecast appears to have been accurate.
Climate Forecasts – Late summer and fall forecasts for much of the Southwest indicate temperatures similar to the warmest 10 years of the 1971–2000 observed conditions. Forecasters are uncertain about summer to fall precipitation because El Niño events can either increase or decrease rainfall.
The Bottom Line – The monsoon season so far has lived up to expectations, arriving early and with above-average rains in some parts of both states. However, because the past few monsoon seasons have been very wet, this season may seem dry. August storms are expected to deliver more rain to the parched Four Corners region, and rains elsewhere will continue to improve short-term drought conditions.