Southwest Climate Outlook July 2008

July Climate Summary
Drought – Above-average monsoon rainfall in the last month has substantially reduced
drought severity in southern and southeastern Arizona and New Mexico.
Temperature – Temperatures across western and central Arizona have been 2–6
degrees F above average, while temperatures around central and southeastern New
Mexico have been 0–2 degrees F cooler than average.
Precipitation – In the past 30 days, most of southern New Mexico and southern
Arizona have received 200–800 percent of average precipitation.
Monsoon – Intense monsoon storms have generated above-average precipitation
for nearly all of Arizona and New Mexico.
ENSO – Sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean are near-average.
ENSO-neutral conditions have returned.
Climate Forecasts – The long-lead forecast made by the Climate Prediction Center
for April through June matched well with the observations of below-average precipitation
and slightly warmer-than-average temperatures in the Southwest.
The Bottom Line – Thanks to a wet, early monsoon season, predicted by forecasters,
Arizona could escape the summer relatively unscarred by fire. Although the
monsoon rains have been welcome by fire managers, who are now diverting most
Arizona fire-fighting resources to other parts of the country, severe weather from
intense storms will continue to create hazards such as flash floods, high winds, and
dust storms.