Southwest Climate Outlook July 2008

Date issued

July Climate Summary
Drought – Above-average monsoon rainfall in the last month has substantially reduced
drought severity in southern and southeastern Arizona and New Mexico.
Temperature – Temperatures across western and central Arizona have been 2–6
degrees F above average, while temperatures around central and southeastern New
Mexico have been 0–2 degrees F cooler than average.
Precipitation – In the past 30 days, most of southern New Mexico and southern
Arizona have received 200–800 percent of average precipitation.
Monsoon – Intense monsoon storms have generated above-average precipitation
for nearly all of Arizona and New Mexico.
ENSO – Sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean are near-average.
ENSO-neutral conditions have returned.
Climate Forecasts – The long-lead forecast made by the Climate Prediction Center
for April through June matched well with the observations of below-average precipitation
and slightly warmer-than-average temperatures in the Southwest.
The Bottom Line – Thanks to a wet, early monsoon season, predicted by forecasters,
Arizona could escape the summer relatively unscarred by fire. Although the
monsoon rains have been welcome by fire managers, who are now diverting most
Arizona fire-fighting resources to other parts of the country, severe weather from
intense storms will continue to create hazards such as flash floods, high winds, and
dust storms.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.