Southwest Climate Outlook July 2006

July Climate Summary
Drought – Drought conditions persist in the Southwest despite an early start to the
monsoon season.
• Much of eastern and southern Arizona is in extreme or exceptional drought.
Drought status for most of the remainder of the Southwest is severe.
• Reservoir levels in Arizona and New Mexico have declined since this time
last year. From last month, Arizona reservoirs are at approximately the same
level, while New Mexico’s have declined 11 percent.
Fire Danger – Fire danger in the Southwest has decreased due to precipitation and
increased humidity associated with the monsoon season.
Temperature – Since the water year began October 1, 2005, temperatures for most
of the Southwest have been 0–4 degrees Fahrenheit above average.
Precipitation – Precipitation has been far below average since the water year began,
though during the previous month some areas have received above-average rainfall
from monsoon thunderstorms.
Climate Forecasts – Forecasters predict increased probabilities of warmer-thanaverage
temperatures through 2006. There are no forecasted precipitation anomalies.
El Niño – Currently, ENSO conditions are neutral and are forecast to remain so for
at least the next three months.
The Bottom Line – An early monsoon start has put a damper on the fire season and
provided some short-term drought relief, but drought conditions are expected to persist.