Southwest Climate Outlook July 2005

Date issued

July Climate Summary
Hydrological Drought
– Abnormally dry to moderate drought persists in the
• Abnormally dry status was reintroduced in parts of central and southwestern
New Mexico.
• Lake Powell is at 50 percent of capacity for the first time since August and
September 2003.
• Reservoir storage in both Arizona and New Mexico remains above 2004 values.
– Water year temperatures are near to above average in the Southwest.
The past 30 days were also above average for most of the Southwest.
– Most of the Southwest, except portions of southeastern Arizona,
remains wetter than average, while the past 30 days were anomalously dry.
Climate Forecasts
– Long-lead outlooks indicate increased chances of above-average
temperatures through January 2006 in Arizona and much of New Mexico. Models
predict a weak, dry monsoon and below-average precipitation through October.
El Niño
– Probabilistic forecasts show that the neutral ENSO conditions are most
likely to continue through June 2006.
The Bottom Line
– Abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought conditions are
expected to deteriorate through October with a weak, dry monsoon.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.